Employment

Private consumption in Peru, measured by the Big Data Index, grew 9.0% year-on-year in October, a slight moderation from September. This progress is supported by credit growth and a robust labor market, although it is dampened by the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation (5.3%).

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week. 3Q GDP and core inflation data for the first half of October challenged September’s dovish minutes, and weakened the case for further easing.

Social Security registrations increased by 186,600 and registered unemployment by 43,100, driven by the extraordinary regularization process for immigrants. After seasonal adjustment, the number of Social Security contributors is estimated to have risen by 96,300 and the number of registered unemployed by 10,300.

The labor market showed a partial recovery in September, following the sharp deterioration recorded in August, partly due to the earthquake. The national unemployment rate declined to 8.0%, from 8.2% a year earlier. However, the slowdown in job creation persists.

In 3Q26, GDP grew by 0.6% q/q, in line with the BBVA Research forecast. The main demand aggregates were also aligned with expectations, with positive surprises in exports and construction. Employment continues to grow and productivity improved.

Employment increased by 0.3% quarterly SA (2.1% year-on-year) in the third quarter, two tenths less than in the second. Hours worked and the labor force also grew, while the unemployment (10.2% SA) and temporary employment (14.9% SA) rates barely changed for the second consecutive quarter.

BBVA Research forecasts growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Extending the business-cycle decomposition through end-2026 points to a slowing expansion: demand and credit offset supply-side constraints, while weak productivity limits convergence with the EU8.