Financial markets

In a split 3-2 decision, Banxico unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. The upcoming minutes may shed light on Banxico’s perceived macroeconomic benefits of this unexpected 25bp adjustment.

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week. 3Q GDP and core inflation data for the first half of October challenged September’s dovish minutes, and weakened the case for further easing.

We expect the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.75-4.00% this week, pairing the pause with a hawkish narrative as it seeks further evidence before deciding whether sticky inflation warrants lifting the fed funds rate beyond December

In this publication you will find, on a weekly basis, our selection of the most relevant news regarding financial regulation.

The global economy faces a complex outlook. The three most significant recent developments affecting economic activity are rising geopolitical tensions, the hawkish shift by the Fed and the ECB, and higher long-term interest rates. Private investment, driven by AI, and fiscal spending continue to support growth.

Credit growth continues to lose momentum as macroprudential restrictions remain the key sector driver. We continue to expect 2026 ROE at around 25%, with risks tilted to the downside. Further decline in TL funding costs should support margins, although slower loan growth and rising costs may constrain the ROE recovery.

Data from the 2025 EIC indicate that Mexico has 1.88 million remittance-receiving households (4.7% of all households). Of these, 50.8% are headed by women, and 59.5% are located in rural or semi-rural areas. Despite the latter, these households have higher ownership rates for certain household assets.