Searcher
Alfonso Ugarte
Alfonso Ugarte
Principal Economist
Spain

Alfonso Ugarte is a Principal Economist in the Global Scenarios Unit of BBVA Research. He has previously worked in the Cross-Country Emerging Markets, Global Trends and Financial System Units in the same department.


His current responsibilities include the development, calibration and updating of several econometric models that are used as inputs by the other departments of BBVA, with a special focus on Country-Risk issues and on cross-country, panel-data analysis. He also provides support in the analysis of financial systems and financial markets in emerging and developing markets.


He has previously held an Adjunct-Professor position in Pompeu Fabra University, where he has taught Econometrics and Corporate Finance, and several other courses as a Teaching Assistant.


He holds a PhD in Economics and Management (Summa Cum Laude) from Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona and a Master of Science from the same University. He obtained his bachelor degree in Economics from Universidad de Los Andes in Colombia.

Latest publications

Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escalation of global uncertainties (trade war)
We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for further bouts of cross asset volatility will restrain a sharp recovery in EM inflows.
In recent months we have witnessed a notable compression in sovereign CDS at the global level, in an economic scenario that is full of uncertainty and in which public debt is at an all-time high.