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Alfonso Ugarte

Alfonso Ugarte is a Senior Economist in the Cross-Country, Emerging-Markets Analysis Unit of BBVA Research.  He has previously worked in the Global Trends Unit and the Financial System Unit in the same department.

 

His current responsibilities include the development, calibration and updating of several econometric models that are used as inputs by the other departments of BBVA, with a special focus on Country-Risk issues and on cross-country, panel-data analysis. He also provides support in the analysis of financial systems and financial markets in emerging and developing markets.

 

He has previously held an Adjunct-Professor position in Pompeu Fabra University, where he has taught Econometrics and Corporate Finance, and several other courses as a Teaching Assistant.

 

He holds a PhD in Economics and Management (Summa Cum Laude) from Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona and a Master of Science from the same University. He obtained his bachelor degree in Economics from Universidad de Los Andes in Colombia.


Latest Publications

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Deleveraging after the burst of a credit-bubble

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We present the results of an empirical exercise in which we seek to explain the deleveraging process that follows the burst of a credit bubble following a systemic banking crisis. We have built up two new databases and have estimated a SUR regression model to jointly explain and predict how strong and how fast private leverage falls after the burst of a credit-bubble.

Available in English

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Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Capital continued to flows toward Global Investment Funds (GIF), albeit at a slower pace, driven by common factors (high global liquidity, subdued US interest rates among others). Over the coming quarters, inflows to GIF shall cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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Fintech in Emerging ASEAN: Trends and Prospects

By , , , ,

Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

Available in Spanish, English

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Long and short-run components in explanatory variables and different panel-data estimates

Document Number 16/10

By

We investigate the idea that when we separate an explanatory variable into its “between” and “within” variations we could be roughly decomposing it into a structural (long-term) and a cyclical component respectively, and this could translate into different Between and Within estimates in panel data.

Geographies:Global
Topics:

Available in English

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Digital EAGLEs and Nest: outlook and perspectives 2016

By , , , ,

EAGLEs and Nest countries have a strong potential to foster its digital development process in the coming years. The future of the fixed broadband adoption will be driven by EAGLEs countries and the EAGLEs Media Sentiment Digital Index has improved significantly since late 2015.

Available in English

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EAGLEs Update of middle classes and educational attainment projections 2016

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The middle classes will continue reshaping the world’s income distribution with Emerging Asia as the largest contributor. The educational sector will be both the motor and beneficiary of expanding middle classes, counterbalancing the effect of slower growth of labor force.

Available in English

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EAGLEs Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2016

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The Emerging World will account for almost four fifths of global growth in the next ten years. New members are included in the EAGLEs and Nest group, coming mainly from Asia and the Middle East. A special chapter of digital EAGLEs.

Available in Spanish, English

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The oil impact on EM Europe’s structural current accounts: a tale of two countries

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We examine the oil price effects on the current account balances of the Emerging European economies. To deal with, we decompose current accounts into cyclical and structural components. The emerging Europe (excluding Russia) current account balance is net winner of the new oil paradigm not only in cyclical position but also in structural aspects.

Available in English

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Oil impact on Asia’s structural current accounts

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In this watch, we decompose the current account balances of emerging market Asian economies into cyclical and structural components to examine the oil price impact on Asia’s structural current accounts.

Available in English

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The current account balance and the oil price shock

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The slump in oil and other commodity prices since mid-2014 is having an important impact on the current account balances (CAB) across the World. While the cyclical effects are already affecting the short-term financing needs of oil exporters in particular, the structural or permanent effects of the lower oil prices will affect countries’ structural balances as well.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report First Quarter 2016

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Financial tensions in Emerging Markets (EMs) soared back to August levels driven by falling commodity prices and stock market turmoil in China, but receded somewhat in February, when the focus changed to the DMs’ banking sector, and after the recent oil price recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report Fourth Quarter 2015

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Financial tensions are receding across the board as tensions in China moderate and as the Fed’s lift-off effect seems to be fully priced-in. Global risk aversion (VIX) has dropped sharply relaxing the Emerging Markets (EMs) risk-off mood.

Available in Spanish, English

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Fixed and Mobile broadband adoption rates across the world: Present and Future

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We present an empirical model to understand and forecast fixed and mobile broadband adoption rates. Our forecasts indicate that the future of the fixed broadband adoption will be driven by the Emerging Markets (EMs) and the level of mobile broadband adoption will change rapidly in both DMs and EMs.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2015

By , , ,

Rising concerns on China add to the expected reaction to a FED’s tightening. Thus, global drivers are behind the volatile and gloomy quarter in EMs equities, FX rates and commodities.

Available in Spanish, English