Our baseline scenario assumes the continuation of the restrictive policies prioritizing disinflation in the short term. Global financial volatility affecting demand for EM assets, Trump policies particularly impacting Europe, and increasing domestic unknowns are near term risks on the Turkish economy, keeping us cautious.

Leading survey-based indicators of August and hard data of July signal a slow-down in economic activity in 3Q25. We expect 2025GDP growth to be 3.5-4%, considering the better than expected first half and the ongoing easing cycle.