Batuhan Barlas works as a Principal Economist at Garanti – BBVA Research since September 2016. His main responsibilities include development and management of macro-econometric models, generating macro-financial forecasts and macroeconomic analysis of Turkey in general.
He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.May 16, 2025
Hard data confirms a robust quarterly GDP growth in 1Q25, similar to the previous quarter (1.7% q/q in 4Q24), driven primarily by domestic demand. Leading indicators signal a broad-based weakening in activity for 2Q25. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% with risks becoming tilted to downside.
April 25, 2025
We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.
April 17, 2025
High frequency data for 1Q25 point that the q/q growth will likely remain steady as in 4Q24, supported by the domestic demand. Despite the uncertainty on trade wars and recent tightening in financial conditions, we evaluate risks as balanced on our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, given the strong buffer of 1Q25 growth.
