Searcher
Ali Batuhan Barlas
Ali Batuhan Barlas
Senior Economist
Turkey

Batuhan Barlas works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since September 2016. His main responsibilities include development and management of macro-econometric models, generating macro-financial forecasts and macroeconomic analysis of Turkey in general.


He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.


Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.

Latest publications

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.
Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for 2019 with some upside risk and a neutral 3% for 2020.
The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.