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Ali Batuhan Barlas
Ali Batuhan Barlas

Economist

Batuhan Barlas works as a Junior Economist at Garanti Bank since September 2016.

 

He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.

 

Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.


Latest Publications

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Turkey | Still solid activity in April…to decelerate

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The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP growth to be near 3.5% this year.

Available in English

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Turkey | Still high 1Q GDP but already moderating

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GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the economy to become more obvious from now onwards.

Available in English

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Turkey | Economic activity moderates

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The Industrial production (IP) grew by 7.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (Consensus: 7.2% vs. BBVA Research: 6.5%) in March. The average IP growth rate reached 9.8% in 1Q, moderating from 10.7% in 4Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 6.4% yoy growth in 1Q (96% of information). We maintain our 2018 GDP growth estimate at 4%.

Available in English

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Turkey | Still limited moderation in activity

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 9.9% yoy (cal. adj.) in February, keeping the high momentum as the overall increase almost stayed the same at 10.9% yoy in the first two months of the year (vs. 10.7% in 4Q). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 5.7% yoy growth for 1Q (with 44% info), with March data showing a much more clearer moderation.

Available in English

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Turkey | GDP grew 7.4% in 2017

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GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectation that GDP growth may normalize to 4.5% in 2018 due to tightening financial conditions with some upside risks.

Available in English

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Turkey | Revised IP series better fits GDP

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IP grew by 12% yoy (cal. adj.) in January (up from 10.7% in 4Q17) above the market consensus of around 7%. IP data is revised with 2015 as the new base year. The new IP portraits a higher correlation (94%) with the new GDP series and a higher growth performance after 2010 (2.5pp on average).

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. February 2018

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Preliminary data signals only a smooth moderation in economic activity at the start of the year. Base effects on inflation started to help in January. The Central Bank remains tight, while fiscal policy stays accommodative on continuing high expenditures and recently announced incentives

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The policy impulse and the resilience of the economy resulted in strong growth dynamics. Inflation will remain high during most of the year on inertia, robust domestic demand and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation. The CBRT will maintain the tight stance, while fiscal policy will likely remain accommodative in 2018.

Available in English

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Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

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The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Global recovery proceeds at a stable pace. Moreover, thanks to the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkish economy continues to grow above potential, which leads us to upgrade our 2017 GDP growth estimate by 1pp to 6%. Additionally, higher momentum in economic activity and ongoing exchange rate pass-through especially from euro results in a higher inflation path.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

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2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. May 2017

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High momentum in commercial credits of Turkish banking sector supported by Credit Guarantee Fund continued in May, carrying credit Growth (YoY) to 17.3% level. On consumer credits side, housing and general purpose loans (GPL) remained strong. Continuing rise in deposit interest rates indicates the increased demand for deposits in this high credit growth environment.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. April 2017

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Thanks to public guarantees by the Credit Guarantee Fund, total credit growth of the Turkish banking sector surpassed Central Bank’s comfort target threshold of 15% reaching 15.9% YoY. Deposit interest rates increased further by 50 bps in April as a by-product of this increased momentum in especially commercial credits.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English