Searcher
Ali Batuhan Barlas
Ali Batuhan Barlas
Senior Economist
Turkey

Batuhan Barlas works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since September 2016. His main responsibilities include development and management of macro-econometric models, generating macro-financial forecasts and macroeconomic analysis of Turkey in general.

He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.

Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.

Latest publications

The high uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has stressed the need to monitor the evolution of the economy in “real time”. We developed a set of Big Data indicators to track Investment in Real Time and High Definition, extending the analysis to assess the business cycle and complementing our tracker of consumption.
Turkish economy contracted by -9.9% in yearly terms in 2Q20. The growth rates in services and industry, sensitive to the Covid-19 shock, were the key factors behind. We revise our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -1% from the previous 0%, keeping the same forecast range from -3% to +1%.
Industrial Production (cal. adj.) grew +0.1% yoy in June, impliying a faster recovery after the sharp drop of 25% during April-May. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of near -5.5% for 2Q, and +0.4% as of July. We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0% with some risks on the downside