Ali Batuhan Barlas
Ali Batuhan Barlas
BBVA Research - Principal Economist

Batuhan Barlas works as a Principal Economist at Garanti BBVA since September 2016. His main responsibilities include development and management of macro-econometric models, generating macro-financial forecasts and macroeconomic analysis of Turkey in general.

He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.

Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.

Latest publications

After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%. Yet, lagged effects might put 2025 GDP growth under pressure.
Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.
After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.