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Ali Batuhan Barlas
Ali Batuhan Barlas

Economist

Batuhan Barlas works as a Junior Economist at Garanti Bank since September 2016.

 

He received his BA degree in Economics from Bogazici University, Istanbul. He continued his graduate studies in Economics at Bogazici University and the University of Maryland, College Park.

 

Prior to joining Garanti Research, he worked as a Research Assistant at Bogazici University and Risk Management Specialist at Fibabanka.


Latest Publications

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Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The policy impulse and the resilience of the economy resulted in strong growth dynamics. Inflation will remain high during most of the year on inertia, robust domestic demand and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation. The CBRT will maintain the tight stance, while fiscal policy will likely remain accommodative in 2018.

Available in English

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Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

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The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Global recovery proceeds at a stable pace. Moreover, thanks to the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkish economy continues to grow above potential, which leads us to upgrade our 2017 GDP growth estimate by 1pp to 6%. Additionally, higher momentum in economic activity and ongoing exchange rate pass-through especially from euro results in a higher inflation path.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

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2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. May 2017

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High momentum in commercial credits of Turkish banking sector supported by Credit Guarantee Fund continued in May, carrying credit Growth (YoY) to 17.3% level. On consumer credits side, housing and general purpose loans (GPL) remained strong. Continuing rise in deposit interest rates indicates the increased demand for deposits in this high credit growth environment.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. April 2017

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Thanks to public guarantees by the Credit Guarantee Fund, total credit growth of the Turkish banking sector surpassed Central Bank’s comfort target threshold of 15% reaching 15.9% YoY. Deposit interest rates increased further by 50 bps in April as a by-product of this increased momentum in especially commercial credits.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English