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Alvaro Ortiz

Alvaro Ortiz is Chief Economist for Cross Emerging Markets at BBVA Research. He previously worked as Chief Economist Europe, Asia and Middle East at Cemex, Deputy Director of Economic Analysis at Repsol YPF and Head of Latin America at the Economic Research department of Banco Santander.

 

Mr Ortiz holds a PhD in Economics (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid) and Advanced Diploma in International Economics and Policy Research by The Kiel Institute for World Economics (Germany).

 

He has published in several academic journals as Economia, the Journal of Lacea, Opec Energy Review, The Service Studies Journal, Bank of Spain working Papers and Moneda y Credito. He usually collaborates in newspapers as El País, El Espectador, El Economista…

 

He has participated in several conferences at international Think Tanks as Brueguel, Wilton Park, Salzburg Global Seminar, ME Days.  


Latest Publications

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

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Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

Available in English

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Lessons from the East

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While part of the western world strives to find defensive strategies with which to combat low economic growth, China goes onto the attack and speeds up its economic projection and external geopolitics by means of the Silk Road project.

Available in Spanish, English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

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Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

Available in English

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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Big Data, Big Models and Big Analysts

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We didn’t have to wait long to see how Big Data would inundate our lives. When making a simple online search to plan a trip, listen to a song or buy a book, as if by magic we receive suggestions not just about what we’re looking for but about similar alternatives too

Available in Spanish, English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

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After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

Available in Spanish, English

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

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We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - February 2017 Update

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While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing.

Available in English

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Ukraine: violence intensified once again in 2017

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Fighting in Eastern Ukraine erupted again, just a day after that the first phone call between Trump and Putin since the US president's inauguration. It was the worst escalation since early 2015. The new US administration's policy stance towards the conflict is still undefined and increases concerns and uncertainties about the conflict evolution and the Russian role on it.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - January 2017 Update

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Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine

Available in English

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Paradox of Progress: Global Trends for the next few years

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Every four years, the US National Intelligence Council produces a Global Trends report for the incoming president, describing the trends and challenges the world will face in the medium term. Last week the latest report was presented under the title “Paradox of Progress”, with the sub-heading “Global Trends and Key Implications Through 2035”.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Trump, tariffs and tensions

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Donald Trump will be inaugurated as 45th President of the United States today. During his campaign, he pledged to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports during his first day in office. While the likelihood of this scenario remains low, a number of factors point towards a more protectionist agenda under Trump.

Available in English

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European Urbanization Trends

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The urbanization process in Europe took place rapidly since 1950, but in the 90s it moderated its pace and it will likely be slower during the next ten years. European cities have become in important hubs for education, innovation and knowledge-based economies. Digitalization has been fundamental to increase competitiveness.

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Syria: The war will continue

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Aleppo has been seized almost entirely by pro-regime forces while Turkey moves deeper into northern Syria to seize ISIS-held al-Bab. The war against rebel forces will move to Idlib province west of Aleppo (rebel held green area in the map and southern parts of it). The new phase in the war would also a test of the allaince between Moscow and Tehran.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - Nov Update

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Russia intensified its campaign in Syria, with heavy airstrikes taking place throughout the month. Iraqi security forces continued their operations in Mosul, making some gains in the eastern area. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine sharply escalated due to Ukrainian missile testing.

Available in English

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China | Revising outbound FDI figures downwards

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China’s share of global ODI stocks may be larger than previously thought if we factor in Hong Kong’s role as an offshore center. That said, our estimates show that MOFCOM figures overstate ODI flows, raising questions regarding the country’s status as a net creditor.

Available in English

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Available in English