Searcher
Arnulfo Rodríguez
Arnulfo Rodríguez
BBVA Research - Principal Economist

Arnulfo Rodriguez is a Senior Economist at BBVA Research since 2012. As a professional economist, Arnulfo has analyzed various macroeconomic, financial, regional and sectoral issues related to the Mexican economy.


Between 2004 and 2011 Arnulfo worked for the Central Bank of Mexico as an Economic Researcher. He has been a Professor at the Economics Department of CIDE in Mexico City, Assistant Instructor at the Economics Department of UT Austin and External Professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin, Texas.


He has published numerous papers in prestigious international academic journals like Computational Economics, Economics Letters and the Journal of Forecasting. Arnulfo came in third and second place in the Pensions National Prize organized by CONSAR and AMAFORE in 2007 and 2008, respectively.


He earned a B.A. in Electrical Engineering from the Monterrey Institute of Technology (ITESM), where he completed his studies with the support of a fellowship and graduated with the highest honors in 1995. Arnulfo also obtained a PhD degree in economics from The University of Texas at Austin in May 2004 with the dissertation “Essays on inflation forecast based rules, robust policies and sovereign debt.”

Latest publications

Downward revision to our 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate to 2.5% (2.9% previously), with lower dynamism of domestic demand.
The production of liquid hydrocarbons in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a quarterly decrement of 15.3 thousand barrels a day due to a reduction of 21.7 thousand barrels a day of Pemex’s crude oil production despite an increase of 7.0 thousand barrels a day of condensates.
The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed down significantly by the end of last year.