Arnulfo Rodríguez
Arnulfo Rodríguez
Principal Economist

Arnulfo Rodriguez is a Senior Economist at BBVA Research since 2012. As a professional economist, Arnulfo has analyzed various macroeconomic, financial, regional and sectoral issues related to the Mexican economy.

Between 2004 and 2011 Arnulfo worked for the Central Bank of Mexico as an Economic Researcher. He has been a Professor at the Economics Department of CIDE in Mexico City, Assistant Instructor at the Economics Department of UT Austin and External Professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin, Texas.

He has published numerous papers in prestigious international academic journals like Computational Economics, Economics Letters and the Journal of Forecasting. Arnulfo came in third and second place in the Pensions National Prize organized by CONSAR and AMAFORE in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

He earned a B.A. in Electrical Engineering from the Monterrey Institute of Technology (ITESM), where he completed his studies with the support of a fellowship and graduated with the highest honors in 1995. Arnulfo also obtained a PhD degree in economics from The University of Texas at Austin in May 2004 with the dissertation “Essays on inflation forecast based rules, robust policies and sovereign debt.”

Latest publications

The permanent reduction of Pemex's tax burden and the possible additional contribution of resources to Pemex beyond 2022, should be supplemented with changes in tax policies that help keep federal government revenues relatively stable and do not risk meeting fiscal targets.
Fitch downgrades Pemex’s bonds to junk status as the company keeps facing serious underinvestment in E&P because of its relatively high fiscal burden.
Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.