Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
Cecilia Posadas
Cecilia Posadas

Principal Economist

Cecilia Posadas Pérez is economist in Latin America's BBVA unit. He has worked at BBVA since April 2006, when she joined the Mexican unit in the macro and financial team as Senior Economist. In August 2013 she joined the Latam team based in Madrid where she contributes in the coordination with teams from South America.

 

Prior to joining BBVA, she was a worked at Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico where she was involved in macroeconomics and planning matters, and previously linked to tax collections studies.

 

She studied economics at the University of York in the UK and previously obtained a bachelor's degree in economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), where he specialized in quantitative analysis.


Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Inflation continues to lose steam in Peru

By , , , , , ,

Today’s is the last edition of our LatAm Daily Flash. For updated macroeconomic analysis of Latin America, please visit our webpage bbvaresearch.com. For daily comments on Latin American markets, please see our report Latin America Daily Update at bbvagmr.com.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | The monetary policy rate in Colombia was increased by 25bps, as expected

By , , , , , ,

BanRep took the repo rate up to 7.75% and GDP for 2016 was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3%. June’s unemployment rose in Colombia (to 10.2%) and in Chile (to 6.9%). Also in Chile, activity data by sectors signals that activity growth will be under 1% YoY in June. In Brazil, the primary deficit worsened, reaching 1.1% of GDP in June, and we forecast 2.7% for the end of 2016.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Monetary policy rate in Colombia to increase by 25bps today

By , , , , , ,

We expect the BanRep to increase its MPR to 7.75%. Also, we expect the unemployment rate to have increased by 9.2%. In Mexico, we expect a more deteriorated preliminary GDP growth for 2Q16: 2.1% YoY / -0.1% QoQ. In Chile, the minutes of the last MP meeting will be released, as will unemployment figures (we expect an increase of 6.9%) and activity data by sector for June.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Credit markets continue to slow down in Brazil

By , , , , , ,

Credit stock grew only 1.0% YoY, a negative rate in real terms as inflation in the period stood at 8.8% YoY. The further moderation of credit markets in the period supports our view that economic activity remains weak and that a further GDP contraction in 2Q16 is the most likely outcome.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | The growth in economic activity in Mexico was higher than expected in May

By , , , , , ,

IGAE grew by 1.0% sa m/m, thanks to the services sector (1.2% m/m, sa). A small (even slightly negative) growth in economic activity is expected for Mexico in 2Q16. In Brazil, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting showed concerns about inflation, which still prevent a cut of the Selic rate. Also in Brazil, the CA deficit remained stable at around 1.7% of GDP in June.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | May’s economic activity to have grown around 0.3% MoM in Mexico

By , , , , , ,

In Mexico, we expect the IGAE to have grown positively in May, in line with an expansion in the primary, industrial and services sectors. In Colombia, Fitch revised Colombia’s outlook to Negative from Stable while maintaining its rating as 'BBB'. Also today, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting will be released in Brazil.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | A further MPR hike in Colombia to be one of the main news this week

By , , , , , ,

During this week, the COPOM minutes in Brazil will be released on Tuesday and are expected to signal that the Selic rate will remain stable ahead. In Colombia, the BanRep should deliver another 25bp interest rates hike on Friday. And in Mexico, 2Q16 GDP data will be released, also on Friday.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Food prices pressure inflation in Brazil

By , , , , , ,

Mostly due to supply shocks, food inflation climbed to 1.45% MoM in the first weeks of July, accounting for almost 70% of the monthly inflation for the period. As highlighted in this week’s monetary policy meeting, pressure from food prices is one of the main risks to inflation in Brazil.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | The "new" Copom in Brazil leaves the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25%

By , , , , , ,

In the first meeting under the presidency of Ilan Goldfajn, the BCB decided to leave the Selic rate stable. Moreover, in a more detailed accompanying statement, the monetary authority affirmed that “...there is no room for the easing of monetary policy”, supporting our view that the interest rate will remain unchanged for some further time.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Selic to remain unchanged in the first policy meeting under Ilan Goldfajn

By , , , , , ,

In the first monetary policy meeting under the new BCB board, commanded by Ilan Goldfajn, who recently replaced Alexandre Tombini, we expect the Selic rate to be left unchanged at 14.25%, as in the previous meetings. Moreover, we see practically no room for the monetary authority to signal that an easing cycle will start soon.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | In Colombia, confidence remains low and trade balance correction continues

By , , , , , ,

Consumer confidence in June stood at -11.3, a bit more optimistic than the previous month. Trade balance pressure on the current account deficit is diminishing. The Constitutional Court approves the plebiscite to seal the FARC peace deal. The Government expects to have signed the final accord by mid-August and hold the plebiscite on 25 September.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Rebound in May’s GDP growth in Peru

By , , , , , ,

In Peru, economic activity grew by 4.9% YoY in May due to a strong performance from extractive activities. We expect output growth to ease to between 3.0% and 3.5 % in June. In Colombia, private consumption confirms that it is slowing down, although the intensity is erratic; industrial production maintained a gradual recovery, only limited by a calendar effect in May.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Pause in monetary policy rate in Chile and Peru, in line with expectations

By , , , , , ,

Chile’s CB kept both MPR at 3.5% and a moderate hawkish bias. Peru’s CB also kept MPR at 4.25% due to a more benign inflation outlook. In Brazil, the BCB’s economic activity index unexpectedly contracted by 0.5% MoM in May. We expect GDP to contract again in 2Q16 and economic stabilisation to arrive only in 2H16.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Monetary policy meetings in Chile and Peru to be held today

By , , , , , ,

In Chile, we expect today another pause in MPR at 3.5% due to weak aggregate activity. We expect two 25bp cuts in the rate over the next 18 months. In Peru, we expect the CB to keep the policy rate at 4.25%, while inflation expectations are slowly moderating. In Brazil, we expect the BCB’s economic activity index to remain unchanged in May.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

LatAm Daily | Retail sales in Brazil in surprise downturn

By , , , , , ,

Retail sales decreased by 1.0% MoM in May, supporting the view that economic activity (and in particular private consumption) remain very weak. In spite of that, we continue to think that the worst in terms of growth is already over. In Chile, in the expectations survey, GDP growth was revised downwards for 2017.

Available in English