May 10, 2022
David Cervantes Arenillas
David Cervantes is Senior Economist at BBVA in Mexico. He is a specialist in impact evaluation, education, financial education, migration, remittances, and labor markets.
BS Degree and PhD in Economics by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Master Degree in Demography by El Colegio de México.
His previous working background includes; deputy director of Evaluation at the BBVA Bancomer Financial Education Program and in the National Institute of Evaluation for Education (Instituto Nacional de Evaluación para la Educación). He has participated in research and impact evaluation projects of national and international organizations like the World Bank and the International Labor Organization and collaborated as a consultant of federal and local governmental programs in Mexico.
He has been a professor of Statistics and Econometrics at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Universidad Anáhuac México Sur.
The generation of low-paid jobs characterizes the recovery of the labor market. Despite the high inflation levels, real wages and the wage bill maintain positive growth. We expect formal employment to continue posting favorable year-on-year growth rates but with a more moderate increase.
Economic outlook with lower GDP growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates. A downward revision to our 2022 GDP growth estimate to 1.2% (2.1% previous) due to the continued weakness of domestic demand and the additional disruptions to global value chains driven by the Ukraine conflict.
Challenging outlook for the Mexican economy in 2022 due to contagions, high inflation, and higher interest rates; we anticipate that Banxico will increase the policy rate until reaching 7.0% by the end of the year