David Cervantes Arenillas
David Cervantes is Senior Economist at BBVA in Mexico. He is a specialist in impact evaluation, education, financial education, migration, remittances, and labor markets.
BS Degree and PhD in Economics by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Master Degree in Demography by El Colegio de México.
His previous working background includes; deputy director of Evaluation at the BBVA Bancomer Financial Education Program and in the National Institute of Evaluation for Education (Instituto Nacional de Evaluación para la Educación). He has participated in research and impact evaluation projects of national and international organizations like the World Bank and the International Labor Organization and collaborated as a consultant of federal and local governmental programs in Mexico.
He has been a professor of Statistics and Econometrics at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Universidad Anáhuac México Sur.
A monetary policy that carries the reference interest rate to an excessively restrictive terrain in a context where long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored can have counterproductive effects.
The expectation of economic growth for 2022 improves due to the greater dynamism of the first semester. We revised our real GDP growth rate forecast to 2.0% (up from 1.2%) due to the good performance of the first half of the year driven by the tertiary sector.
The growth of employment, and consequently the low levels of unemployment, have made it possible to increase the total wage bill, which is currently 3.0% above the pre-pandemic level; however, this gain has been due to the generation of low-paid jobs and the loss of employment of more than 2 Minimum Wages (MW)