February 14, 2024
David Cervantes Arenillas
David Cervantes is Senior Economist at BBVA in Mexico. He is a specialist in impact evaluation, education, financial education, migration, remittances, and labor markets.
BS Degree and PhD in Economics by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Master Degree in Demography by El Colegio de México.
His previous working background includes; deputy director of Evaluation at the BBVA Bancomer Financial Education Program and in the National Institute of Evaluation for Education (Instituto Nacional de Evaluación para la Educación). He has participated in research and impact evaluation projects of national and international organizations like the World Bank and the International Labor Organization and collaborated as a consultant of federal and local governmental programs in Mexico.
He has been a professor of Statistics and Econometrics at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Universidad Anáhuac México Sur.
Formal employment added 109 thousand new jobs in January, 2.4% less than in 2023, with a marked slowdown in manufacturing and services. Real wage increased 5.6% YoY (15.4% above pre-pandemic), and the total wage bill grew 8.8% YoY (23.9% above pre-pandemic).
Signs indicate a gradual slowdown/normalization of the labor market, with NIFB survey trends suggesting no acceleration in employment, alongside lower Job openings and quits indicating slower wage growth.
December's inflation increased to 3.4%, driven by a monthly variation of 0.3%. At 3.9%, core inflation rose by 0.3% month-on-month, influenced by used cars and shelter; the latter remains a key factor for the expected decline in inflation in the coming months.