David Cervantes Arenillas
David Cervantes is Senior Economist at BBVA in Mexico. He is a specialist in impact evaluation, education, financial education, migration, remittances, and labor markets.
BS Degree and PhD in Economics by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Master Degree in Demography by El Colegio de México.
His previous working background includes; deputy director of Evaluation at the BBVA Bancomer Financial Education Program and in the National Institute of Evaluation for Education (Instituto Nacional de Evaluación para la Educación). He has participated in research and impact evaluation projects of national and international organizations like the World Bank and the International Labor Organization and collaborated as a consultant of federal and local governmental programs in Mexico.
He has been a professor of Statistics and Econometrics at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and Universidad Anáhuac México Sur.
The rebound in economic activity in 3Q20 has been higher than expected, although the pace will slow due to weak in domestic demand and a slowdown in external demand. We continue to anticipate a slowdown in inflation and lower interest rates, however we now expect these lower levels to be delayed a few months.
The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) reported that 92.4 thousand formal jobs were created in August, equivalent to 8.3% of the 1.1 million jobs lost from March to July. The weak recovery in employment could not stop the deterioration of the labor market in a generalized way.
September 8, 2020
Mexico | Economic package 2021 based on relatively optimistic GDP and income assumptions
The economic package reinforces the signal of fiscal discipline by establishing a primary balance of 0% of GDP. It is positive that the federal government has proposed that goal instead of the deficit of 0.6% of GDP that it had suggested in Pre-Criteria for 2021.