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Deniz Ergun works as an Economist at Garanti BBVA since February 2014. She holds a PhD in Law &Economics (Magna Cum Laude) at the Erasmus University Rotterdam and the University of Bologna. During her studies, she also worked as a visiting researcher at the University of Hamburg. She completed her Masters in Economics in Albert Ludwigs Universitaet Freiburg-Germany. During her master studies she worked as a trainee at HSBC Trinkaus Internationale Kapitalanlagegesellschaft/Düsseldorf between 2008-2009. She holds a BA degree in Economics from Koc University, Istanbul.Her current responsibilities include the analysis of financial systems, financial stability, regulatory and country risk issues including financial system modelling.
The allocation of resources to productive sectors is a factor that supports sustainable growth. Therefore, it is important to understand how the credit boost in recent years has been distributed among the sectors and whether those sectors also perform well in terms of productivity.
The crisis caused by COVID-19 is showing its first impacts on the banking sector. Our analysis assesses the impact on the sector of seven factors and its trends: monetary policy, digitalization, regulation, economic growth, new entrants, competitive landscape and government support.
Recent policy impulses could support the acceleration in the economic activity further. We upgrade our GDP growth to 0.8% and 4% for 2019 & 2020 respectively with a higher support from Domestic Demand.