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Enestor Dos Santos
Enestor Dos Santos

Principal Economist

Enestor Dos Santos is principal economist for Brazil and Latin America at BBVA Research, where he has been working since 2008.

 

His previous professional and academic experience includes the World Bank, the IADB, the Wharton Business School and the IE Business School.

 

He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a master's degree in the same discipline from the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil.


Latest Publications

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Urbanisation, digitisation and growth in Latin America

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It is little known that Latin America is a region which is as urban as developed economies and much more so than other emerging regions. How can the region take advantage of the opportunities generated by its high level of urbanisation?

Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts

Document Number 17/04

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Following advances in the distributed ledger technology, central banks are assessing the issuance of digital currency. There's a range of possible schemes to adopt depending on which features of cash to hold: universality, anonymity and non-yield bearing. We analyze opportunities and challenges of 4 key schemes, that support a strategy of gradual testing and implementation

Available in Spanish, English

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LatAm Daily | Inflation continues to lose steam in Peru

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Today’s is the last edition of our LatAm Daily Flash. For updated macroeconomic analysis of Latin America, please visit our webpage bbvaresearch.com. For daily comments on Latin American markets, please see our report Latin America Daily Update at bbvagmr.com.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The monetary policy rate in Colombia was increased by 25bps, as expected

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BanRep took the repo rate up to 7.75% and GDP for 2016 was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3%. June’s unemployment rose in Colombia (to 10.2%) and in Chile (to 6.9%). Also in Chile, activity data by sectors signals that activity growth will be under 1% YoY in June. In Brazil, the primary deficit worsened, reaching 1.1% of GDP in June, and we forecast 2.7% for the end of 2016.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Monetary policy rate in Colombia to increase by 25bps today

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We expect the BanRep to increase its MPR to 7.75%. Also, we expect the unemployment rate to have increased by 9.2%. In Mexico, we expect a more deteriorated preliminary GDP growth for 2Q16: 2.1% YoY / -0.1% QoQ. In Chile, the minutes of the last MP meeting will be released, as will unemployment figures (we expect an increase of 6.9%) and activity data by sector for June.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Credit markets continue to slow down in Brazil

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Credit stock grew only 1.0% YoY, a negative rate in real terms as inflation in the period stood at 8.8% YoY. The further moderation of credit markets in the period supports our view that economic activity remains weak and that a further GDP contraction in 2Q16 is the most likely outcome.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The growth in economic activity in Mexico was higher than expected in May

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IGAE grew by 1.0% sa m/m, thanks to the services sector (1.2% m/m, sa). A small (even slightly negative) growth in economic activity is expected for Mexico in 2Q16. In Brazil, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting showed concerns about inflation, which still prevent a cut of the Selic rate. Also in Brazil, the CA deficit remained stable at around 1.7% of GDP in June.

Available in English

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Brazil | The COPOM is still concerned about inflation

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The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting show that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is concerned about the fact that both market inflation expectations and some of its own forecasts continue to show inflation above 4.5% at the end of 2017. Taking that into account, the monetary authority concluded that “…there is no room for the easing of monetary policy”.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | May’s economic activity to have grown around 0.3% MoM in Mexico

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In Mexico, we expect the IGAE to have grown positively in May, in line with an expansion in the primary, industrial and services sectors. In Colombia, Fitch revised Colombia’s outlook to Negative from Stable while maintaining its rating as 'BBB'. Also today, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting will be released in Brazil.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | A further MPR hike in Colombia to be one of the main news this week

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During this week, the COPOM minutes in Brazil will be released on Tuesday and are expected to signal that the Selic rate will remain stable ahead. In Colombia, the BanRep should deliver another 25bp interest rates hike on Friday. And in Mexico, 2Q16 GDP data will be released, also on Friday.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Food prices pressure inflation in Brazil

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Mostly due to supply shocks, food inflation climbed to 1.45% MoM in the first weeks of July, accounting for almost 70% of the monthly inflation for the period. As highlighted in this week’s monetary policy meeting, pressure from food prices is one of the main risks to inflation in Brazil.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The "new" Copom in Brazil leaves the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25%

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In the first meeting under the presidency of Ilan Goldfajn, the BCB decided to leave the Selic rate stable. Moreover, in a more detailed accompanying statement, the monetary authority affirmed that “...there is no room for the easing of monetary policy”, supporting our view that the interest rate will remain unchanged for some further time.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Selic to remain unchanged in the first policy meeting under Ilan Goldfajn

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In the first monetary policy meeting under the new BCB board, commanded by Ilan Goldfajn, who recently replaced Alexandre Tombini, we expect the Selic rate to be left unchanged at 14.25%, as in the previous meetings. Moreover, we see practically no room for the monetary authority to signal that an easing cycle will start soon.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | In Colombia, confidence remains low and trade balance correction continues

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Consumer confidence in June stood at -11.3, a bit more optimistic than the previous month. Trade balance pressure on the current account deficit is diminishing. The Constitutional Court approves the plebiscite to seal the FARC peace deal. The Government expects to have signed the final accord by mid-August and hold the plebiscite on 25 September.

Available in English