Growth and inflation have slowed under tighter monetary conditions, a weaker fiscal impulse, and a challenging global backdrop, supporting expectations of an imminent easing cycle. GDP is set to grow 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with inflation likely ending this year at 4.4% and next year at 3.8%.

Global trade is slowing after the initial rebound in early 2025. Still, volumes remain above 2024 levels. Mexico and several Asian economies stay dynamic, while China, Eurozone, and Canada show signs of moderation. Mexico continues to gain share in U.S. trade, driven by electronics despite declines in the automotive sector.