The sensitivity remains on growth and employment outlook, potentially generating a policy mix where monetary stance staying relatively tighter compared to our early March baseline scenario and fiscal policy not being able to be tightened as targeted in the Medium Term Program (MTP).

Consumer inflation rose by 1.53% m/m, lower than both our expectation (1.8%) and the market consensus (2.0%), driving annual inflation down to 35.4%. We evaluate that the balance of risks on our 31% year-end inflation forecast become slightly tilted to the downside, depending on the overall stance of the policy mix.