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    Gül Yücel
    Gül Yücel
    BBVA Research - Senior Economist

    Gül Yücel works as an Economist at Garanti  – BBVA Research since June 2022. She holds a BA and MA degree in Economics from Bilkent University, Ankara.

    Previously, she worked as an Economist at the Industrial Development Bank of Turkey where she was mainly responsible for doing research on topics in development economics, particularly gender equality and climate crisis.

    Latest publications

    July 19, 2024

    Türkiye | Pending an effective rebalancing in activity
    The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.

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    July 3, 2024

    Türkiye | Inflation trend weakens clearly in June
    Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.

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    June 13, 2024

    Türkiye | Deceleration in economic activity in 2Q24

    After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%. Yet, lagged effects might put 2025 GDP growth under pressure.

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