Searcher
Gül Yücel
Gül Yücel
Senior Economist
Istanbul

Gül Yücel works as an Economist at Garanti  – BBVA Research since June 2022. She holds a BA and MA degree in Economics from Bilkent University, Ankara.

Previously, she worked as an Economist at the Industrial Development Bank of Turkey where she was mainly responsible for doing research on topics in development economics, particularly gender equality and climate crisis.

Latest publications

Turkish economy grew by 4.0% y/y in 4Q23 (vs. 3.6% exp. and consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, for which we envisage pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows will be supportive.
We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.5% after realizing nearly 4.5% in 2023.
Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now expect consumer inflation to slow down to 45% by end 2024.