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Hugo Vega
Hugo Vega
Senior Economist
Peru

Hugo Vega is currently a Senior Economist from the BBVA Research Peru Unit. He is part of a team devoted to macroanalysis of the Peruvian economy. He is also a professor and teaches the Master’s Degree in Economics at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and the Faculty of Economics of the University of Piura.


Prior to this, he was an Assistant Manager of Investment Strategy at AFP Integra and he has also worked within the Management of Economic Studies at the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, where he led the Monetary Programme.


Hugo has a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (London, UK). He has published a number of papers on macroeconomic issues such as monetary policy, macroprudential tools, financial friction.

Latest publications

We estimate output growth for 1H19 around 2%YoY, accelerating to roughly 4% in 2H19. As a result, Peru’s GDP will grow 2,9% in 2019, one percentage point less than our previous estimate from three months ago. For 2020, we anticipate growth will approach 4%.
Activity slowed at the beginning of the year due to the decline in public investment and mining production. Going forward, there will be a better performance .We continue foreseeing GDP will grow by 3.9% in 2019 supported by mining investment. However, in comparison with the previous report, now our forecast has a downward bias.
We estimated a Taylor rule for the Central Bank and found that the estimated rate has not diverted from the average observed rate more than one month. We expected that the BCRP would soon begin to raise the rate to a more neutral level. However, there are concerns about global growth which could lead to the current monetary pause being extended for several months.