Javier Amador is Principal Economist of BBVA Research. He joined BBVA Research in 2002. He has worked mainly in macroeconomic and financial analysis related to the Mexican, US and global economy. Between 2005 and 2007 he was a Senior Economist in the US team where he analyzed inflation and monetary policy mainly. He was a Principal Economist in the Global Financial Scenarios Team from 2010 to 2013 where he followed mainly Monetary Policy.
He obtained the Degree in Economics at the Monterrey Institute of Technology (ITESM) in 2000 with the highest honors (Summa Cum Laude), and an MsC in macroeconomics and finance subjects at the University of Birmingham in 2001.
Following a less hawkish tone from Chair Powell in his press conference early this month, the yield curve now suggests a potential turning point has been reached, reflecting investors’ belief that the Fed is done raising rates and growing expectations of rate cuts in 2024.
In October, U.S. CPI dropped to 3.2% YoY, a 0.5% decrease driven by stable headline inflation, lower-than-expected core print, and reduced housing and energy prices. Anticipating continued cooling, 4Q is expected to average 3.4% YoY for headline inflation and 4.0% for core inflation.
After signaling in September that the policy rate was set to remain unchanged “for an extended period,” Banxico now says that it must be kept unchanged “for some time.”