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Javier Amador
Javier Amador

Principal Economist

•BBVA Economic Research Department since 2002 (2005-2007 in US Team)
•MsC in International Money and Banking. Department of Economics, University of Birmingham
•B.A. Economics (ITESM). Summa Cum Laude

Latest Publications

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Banxico: playing it safe

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Banxico raised its policy rate by another 25bp to 7.5%, as widely anticipated, and in line with our and consensus call, given recent communication hawkishness and hints from Banxico's governor ahead of the decision. The policy rate is now at a nine year high.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Fall in inflation the start of a downwards trend

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As widely expected, annual inflation declines sharply in January.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Banxico will deliver the signaled 25bp hike

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The inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We expect wording changes to signal a possible pause in coming meetings.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Inflation: January CPI forecast

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Following the positive surprise in 1H January, our forecast for the January headline inflation print is 0.40% MoM, translating into a 5.40% YoY number (1.4pp lower than in December).

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Inflation: 1st January CPI FoF forecast

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We anticipate that headline inflation will show a large drop in the first half of January, while core inflation is likely to resume its downward trend following the uptick seen over the last two months.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. January 2018

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Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll credit slows despite improvement in its granting conditions. Alert from the authorities about participation in “Initial Coin Offerings” schemes (ICO). The Financial System Stability Council (CESF) updates its balance of risks.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. December 2017

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The total credit balance through cards slows its momentum during 2017. Car loans accelerated their momentum, offering better conditions as regards amounts and terms. The International Monetary Fund renews Mexico’s Flexible Credit Line. The Mexican financial system has the capacity to face adverse events. New technologies and financial inclusion in Latin America.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico |A "hawkish hold" with risks ahead in an unusual context, the best strategy for now

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Monetary Policy should not react to temporary supply shocks. In a close call (70-30 odds) we expect Banxico to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting. A hawkish pause is enough for the time being

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economy contracted in the third quarter of the year. The preliminary QoQ growth rate, annualised, was negative at 0.8%

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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The Mexican financial system has the capacity to face adverse events: Banxico

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Banxico published its update of the Financial System Report 2017. The main risks identified for the country's financial stability are: i) an increase in inflation; ii) low economic growth; iii) lower oil revenues; and iv) the possibility of a sudden reversal of capital flows

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Lower US corporate taxes would not reverse Mexico’s competitive advantage in manufacturing

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Mexico would continue to be more competitive than the United States in the production of manufactured goods even if the latter were to cut its corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. The difference in labor costs alone is a sufficient factor for Mexico to remain more competitive than the US

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Geographies:Mexico USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. November 2017

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The global financial system faces lesser risks, but vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges persist. In September house prices rose less than inflation. Negative differentiation of domestic assets due to uncertainty caused by the renegotiation of NAFTA. Adjustments to the risk diversification rule

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. October 2017

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Update of the risk assessment by the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction companies’ activity fell 2.7% in July 2017. Losses for Emerging Market assets on investor expectations factoring in an additional hike by the Fed towards year end

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Earthquakes in Mexico: we are not changing our 2017 growth forecast

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Besides the economic losses caused by this natural disaster, the palpable effects are limited and only relevant to very specific regions and do not represent a major change in the economic growth rates at a national level. The earthquakes did not damage the productive capacity of the economy, as productive infrastructure was largely unaffected

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English