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Jinyue Dong
Jinyue Dong

Economist

Jinyue Dong started to take the position as China Economist of BBVA in June, 2014. She is in charge of projections of key macro indicators of China based on the forecasting models, regular research publications and comments on important data release or the authorities’ policy actions; moreover, she also takes responsibilities of research related inquiries from outbound clients and internal ones.

 

Previous to this position, Jinyue Dong has worked in Hong Kong Monetary Authority as Research Associate and Asian Development Bank as Consultant, focusing on monetary policy, financial market synchronization and China’s financial liberalization related issues.  She also worked in National Development and Reform Commission of China as Research Analyst prior to the graduate study.

 

She obtained PhD in Economics at City University of Hong Kong, Master of Economics at The University of Hong Kong and Bachelor in Economics from University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. She is the author of several economics papers published in the academic journals and has jointly published working papers of Bank for International Settlements, Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research and Asian Development Bank.


Latest Publications

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China | Growth moderation continues

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November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

Available in English

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Available in English

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China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

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China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English

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China | Economy continued the downward adjustment in August

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of this year, Chinese economy continued its downward adjustment in August following its slowdown in July, which is in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts started to transmit to the real economy for the recent two months.

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China | Upbeat August PMIs point to a diminished tail risk for China’s economy

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Despite that July activity indicators slightly disappointed the market, China’s economy seemingly resumed its momentum in August. The official manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.7 from 51.4 of the previous month. Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.6 from 51.1 in the previous month, beating the market consensus at 51.0.

Available in English

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China | Taming China’s shadow banking sector

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China’s shadow banking sector evolved rapidly over the past few years as regulators and financial institutions played a “Whack-A-Mole” game. It occurs in the context of China’s ongoing financial liberalization. Our empirical analysis indicates that the current financial deleveraging and regulation tightening will drag on growth but the impact should be limited.

Available in English

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

Available in English

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

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China | Solid recovery continues in July

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Despite a lull of moderation in April-May, China’s economic recovery has staged a comeback at mid-year. The official manufacturing PMI in July remained in the expansionary territory at 51.4 (consensus: 51.5), although slightly below the previous strong reading at 51.7. Meanwhile, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI significantly surged to 51.1 from 50.4 in the previous month。

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

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China | Growth momentum is stronger than market expectations

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2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.

Available in English

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China: June PMIs indicate an stronger-than-expected growth momentum

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China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS last Friday) picked up significantly to 51.7 in June from 51.2 in May, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51). Following the same trend, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI announced today, which includes a survey sample tilting toward SMEs and exporters, increased to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in the previous month.

Available in English

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Available in English

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China | Decline in foreign reserves won’t grind to a halt in 2017

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China’s foreign reserves seem to have stabilized at the beginning of the year. By decomposing the change of foreign reserves in 2016, we make projections of foreign reserves at end-2017 under two scenarios with distinct key assumptions. To avert a swift depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities need to prevent large swings in the exchange rate.

Available in English