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Jinyue Dong
Jinyue Dong

Economist

Jinyue Dong started to take the position as China Economist of BBVA in June, 2014. She is in charge of projections of key macro indicators of China based on the forecasting models, regular research publications and comments on important data release or the authorities’ policy actions; moreover, she also takes responsibilities of research related inquiries from outbound clients and internal ones.

 

Previous to this position, Jinyue Dong has worked in Hong Kong Monetary Authority as Research Associate and Asian Development Bank as Consultant, focusing on monetary policy, financial market synchronization and China’s financial liberalization related issues.  She also worked in National Development and Reform Commission of China as Research Analyst prior to the graduate study.

 

She obtained PhD in Economics at City University of Hong Kong, Master of Economics at The University of Hong Kong and Bachelor in Economics from University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. She is the author of several economics papers published in the academic journals and has jointly published working papers of Bank for International Settlements, Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research and Asian Development Bank.


Latest Publications

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

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China: June PMIs indicate an stronger-than-expected growth momentum

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China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS last Friday) picked up significantly to 51.7 in June from 51.2 in May, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51). Following the same trend, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI announced today, which includes a survey sample tilting toward SMEs and exporters, increased to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in the previous month.

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

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China | Decline in foreign reserves won’t grind to a halt in 2017

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China’s foreign reserves seem to have stabilized at the beginning of the year. By decomposing the change of foreign reserves in 2016, we make projections of foreign reserves at end-2017 under two scenarios with distinct key assumptions. To avert a swift depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities need to prevent large swings in the exchange rate.

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China | Monetary Policy: New Framework, New Stance

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The People’s Bank of China is establishing a “corridor system” as its new monetary policy framework.The central bank will align the policy rate target with their desired levels via open market operation (OMO).In this year,the stance of monetary policy is likely to be prudent in real sense.

Geographies:Asia China

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China Economic Outlook: First Quarter of 2017

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Economic activities continued to gain traction through Q4, enabling the authorities to meet their full-year target in 2016. The authorities recently fine-tuned their policy stance and put more emphasis on the stability of exchange rate. Downside risks: uncertainties from Trump’s policies ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking .

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China | On the way to the floating regime: RMB is set to depreciate

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We believe the exchange rate regime of the RMB will ultimately shift to a floating one as other major economies in the world. The floating of the RMB could come in the second half of 2018. Although certain degree of currency overshooting is inevitable, the final floating will help China’s economy restore its external balance and push up the exchange rate in the long run.

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China | Slowed growth on a soft-landing track

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China’s 2016 Q4 GDP came out today at 6.8% y/y, marginally higher than the market expectations and the previous reading. The 2016 full year GDP turned out to be 6.7%, surpassing the authorities’ target of 6.5%. December FAI and IP decelerated marginally from their previous readings. As growth headwinds are still ahead, we expect growth to continue its downtrend this year.

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China | Recovery appears resilient to headwinds

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November activity indicators came out today, indicating growth momentum continues. Among which, retail sales picked up significantly on strong auto sales while IP and FAI are in line with the market expectations. Altogether, economic activities continue to rebound from the previous downturn despite recent headwinds from housing market and RMB deprecation.

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China | Narrowed trade surplus and plunged foreign reserves

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The authorities have reported trade and foreign reverses data in November, pointing to a further weakening of the country’s external balance amid elevated global uncertainties in the aftermath of US president election and Italy constitutional referendum.

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China | Growth recovery continues

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China manufacturing sector maintains its momentum in November despite the recent tightening measures on the property market and the exchange rate market volatility. November PMI outturns indicate manufacturing activities continue to expand over past several months, underpinned by firms’ piling-up of their inventory level. We maintain our growth forecast at 6.6% for 2016.

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China Economic Outlook: Fourth Quarter of 2016

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Global economic growth rate has improved slightly to around 3%. In China, economic activity continues to gain traction in Q4, which made us raise our 2016 full-year projection to 6.6% from 6.4% previously. However, the recently imposed tightening measures on property market and external financial tension add headwinds to growth going forward.

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China | Growth recovery continues

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October activity indicators came out today, most of which are in line with the market expectations and the previous month readings, such as industrial production and fixed asset investment. But retail sales dropped significantly. On the other hand, most credit indicators are below the market expectations. We maintain our full year GDP forecast at 6.6%.

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China | Upbeat PMI outturns confirm the ongoing recovery

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China’s manufacturing PMIs rose up further in October despite the recently reinstated tightening measures on the property market. It has given certain upward surprise to the market as majority of analysts had anticipated a softening of economic activities. More importantly, the pickup in NBS PMI was primarily driven by better performance of small-and-medium enterprises.

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China | Growth stabilized in Q3

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China’s 2016 Q3 GDP came out today at 6.7% y/y, in line with the market expectations and flat with the previous quarter’s reading as well. Meanwhile, credit supply maintained its accelerating momentum in September. Based on the data outturns, we raise our 2016 full-year GDP projection to 6.6% from 6.4% previously.

Available in English