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Jinyue Dong
Jinyue Dong

Economist

Jinyue Dong started to take the position as China Economist of BBVA in June, 2014. She is in charge of projections of key macro indicators of China based on the forecasting models, regular research publications and comments on important data release or the authorities’ policy actions; moreover, she also takes responsibilities of research related inquiries from outbound clients and internal ones.

 

Previous to this position, Jinyue Dong has worked in Hong Kong Monetary Authority as Research Associate and Asian Development Bank as Consultant, focusing on monetary policy, financial market synchronization and China’s financial liberalization related issues.  She also worked in National Development and Reform Commission of China as Research Analyst prior to the graduate study.

 

She obtained PhD in Economics at City University of Hong Kong, Master of Economics at The University of Hong Kong and Bachelor in Economics from University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. She is the author of several economics papers published in the academic journals and has jointly published working papers of Bank for International Settlements, Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research and Asian Development Bank.


Latest Publications

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China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

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After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

Available in English

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China | Growth moderation amid trade risk and domestic deleveraging

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May economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, all indicators dropped from the previous readings and the market expectations. This suggests that headwinds are weighing on growth, mainly from domestic tightening policy and the unsettled trade skirmishes.

Available in English

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China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

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We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Available in English

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China | Financial liberalization: time to restart

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The process of China’s financial liberalization ground to a halt in 2015-2017 after experiencing a cluster of episodes of financial turmoil. After a few years of adjustment, the authorities now seem to be ready to press ahead with their agenda of financial liberalization again. Moreover, the authorities’ renewed interest in financial liberalization is broad-based.

Available in English

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China | Growth moderation amid trade war risk

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April economic indicators announced today point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, fixed asset investment and retail sales both dropped from the previous readings, although industrial production maintained its momentum. This suggests that growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US.

Available in English

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China | Robust growth in Q1 2018

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Q1 GDP growth reached 6.8% y/y, in line with the previous reading and the market expectation, indicating that Q1 economic growth is robust. However, growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US. The growth is most likely to moderate through the rest of the year.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Available in English

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China | President Xi announced more opening-up policies in Boao forum

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Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual summit that's been dubbed the "Asian Davos," in which he highlighted his support for opening up policies and regional economic integration. The speech came amid the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Available in English

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China | How resilient is the economy to housing price fall?

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Real estate fluctuations have important implications for growth and business cycles in China. We investigate how vulnerable are four economic sectors including government, banking, enterprises and households to the prospective price slowdown in the housing market by analyzing the exposure of these sectors on the housing market and conduct a stress test on these sectors.

Available in English

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China | Growth picked up at the beginning of 2018

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January and February economic indicators were reported today, most of which exceeded market expectations and the previous readings. This indicates that growth has been in a steady trend during the NPC and CPPCC. However, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts of financial deleveraging and supply-side reforms.

Available in English

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China | A preview of the NPC and CPPC sessions

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On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut and property tax are expected to be discussed.

Available in English

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China | A sharp drop of trade surplus and continuously increasing foreign reserve

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The authorities have released trade data today and foreign reverses data yesterday, pointing to a mixing picture of the country’s external balance amid global uncertainties. On the trade front, imports significantly rocketed to 36.9% in terms of USD, narrowing trade balance significantly. On the other hand, foreign reserve has increased in 12 consecutive months.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

Available in English

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China | A soft-landing in 2017

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December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

Available in English

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China | The changing role of RRR in new monetary policy framework

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The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.

Available in English