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Julián Cubero

Julián Cubero has been Chief Economist in BBVA Research’s Economic Modelling and Long Term Analysis area since June 2016. This area analyses the latest economic trends, like digital transformation, as well as global phenomena such as international commerce, and explores macroeconomic risk factors with potential relevance to BBVA’s business.

 

Previously, Julián Cubero was active in BBVA Research as Chief Economist for the Spanish economy (from October 2006 to December 2008), Chief Economist for Macroeconomic Analysis of Mexico (from January 2009 to August 2012) and Chief Economist of Economic Scenarios (from September 2012 to May 2016).

 

He possesses a Bachelor’s Degree in Economic Sciences -Quantitative Economics - from the Autonomous University of Madrid.


Latest Publications

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The IMF Summit and not losing at cards

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Next week we will know the International Monetary Fund's diagnosis of the state of the economy at its weekly meeting with the World Bank, which also brings together governors from central banks, finance ministers and representatives from the financial sector and wider civil society from around the world.

Available in Spanish, English

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The enemies of trade

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Globalisation, which is simply a process which favours greater exchange by overcoming geographical distances and administrative and cultural obstacles, is being called into question.

Available in Spanish, English

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G7, the weight of words

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The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Trade is global, not a country-by-country balancing act

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The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and statements by both the president and the new US trade authorities seem to indicate that the US is turning towards bilateralism and is likely to consider the balance of trade as the variable on which to base its policies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Stranger Things

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2016 has been a year of surprises. First came the surprise result of the UK referendum in favour of leaving the EU, to be followed a few months later by the US presidential elections. Both events mark the end of the status quo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | GDP growth stuck at 3.1% in Q2 amid hopeful confidence and lingering uncertainty

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Minor changes in July-16 in terms of World GDP growth according to BBVA Research GAIN estimates, which remain anchored at 0.8% QoQ (3.1% SAAR) in 2Q16 . The lack of relevant revisions of World GDP data and the balance between slightly better confidence indicators vs. worsening financial volatility are the factors behind the slight changes in GDP growth forecasts for 2Q16

Available in English

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Emerging mediocrity

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The world is distancing itself from the recession of 2009 at a slower pace than before the financial crisis of nearly a decade ago.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

Available in Spanish, English

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Improved global growth scenario is weak and fragile

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The diagnosis of the global economic scenario has improved in the last three months after the downward adjustment of global growth and the drops in financial markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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Flows & Assets Report: Flow reallocation back to EM. Second Quarter 2016

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Global risk aversion receded in Q1 2016 in a context of still volatile markets. The return of risk appetite was attributable to stabilization signs in China, the rebound in oil prices and the continued support of Developed Markets' central banks.

Available in English

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Global Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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The strength of the global economy will continue to be shaped by financial markets which have to cope with a great variety of potential risks against the background of different economic forces consistent with anaemic growth.

Available in Spanish, English

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A fragile improvement in markets

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The global scenario was shaped, during the first two months of 2016, by the drop in riskier assets, such as equity markets, corporate and bank bonds in markets across the globe and all types of assets in the emerging markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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What is novel in the new stress tests?

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As recently done by the authorities in the United States and in the United Kingdom, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has launched this year a new stress test for European banks.

Units:
Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks Opinion

Available in Spanish

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G20: the most pressing is to analyse

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The Finance Ministers and governors of the Central Banks of the G20 nations met last week in Shanghai, a forum in which these industrialised and emerging economies meet since 1999 to discuss issues of financial and monetary policy, or more general matters tied to world economic development.

Available in Spanish

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Global | Updated GDP data and recent indicators lower global growth to 2.6% SAAR in 1Q16

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The March update of our BBVA-GAIN index points out lower rhythm of global growth in 1Q16 due to the coincidence of updated 2015 GDP time series from a vast number of countries and the flow of incoming indicators

Available in English