Julián Cubero
Julián Cubero
Lead Economist

Julián Cubero has been Chief Economist in BBVA Research’s Economic Modelling and Long Term Analysis area since June 2016. This area analyses the latest economic trends, like digital transformation, as well as global phenomena such as international commerce, and explores macroeconomic risk factors with potential relevance to BBVA’s business.

Previously, Julián Cubero was active in BBVA Research as Chief Economist for the Spanish economy (from October 2006 to December 2008), Chief Economist for Macroeconomic Analysis of Mexico (from January 2009 to August 2012) and Chief Economist of Economic Scenarios (from September 2012 to May 2016).

He possesses a Bachelor’s Degree in Economic Sciences -Quantitative Economics - from the Autonomous University of Madrid.

Latest publications

At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.
In Europe, the deterioration of growth expectations has been more pronounced, incorporating the effect of negative surprises that appear less transitory in an area especially sensitive to the development of trade with the US and China.
Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.