Manuel Ernesto Saenz Valdez
Manuel Ernesto Saenz Valdez
BBVA Research - Economist

An economist who graduated with honors from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru. He monitors and analyzes the main sectors of the economy, as well as their real impact on BBVA's activities.

Previously, he worked as Strategy Manager at BBVA Peru, and he has more than 7 years of experience in corporate strategy in various industries. He has also worked as a research assistant at the Research Center of the Universidad del Pacífico of Peru, where he wrote publications on sustainability and entrepreneurship.

His areas of interest are sector analysis applied to new businesses and financial analysis.

Latest publications

Economic activity will rebound this year as the negative shocks that affected it in 2023 revert and the environment for private sector spending improves. Output is expected to grow 2,7%, higher than our three-months-ago forecast (2,0%), as weather anomalies related to the coastal El Niño phenomenon have been less intense.
The economy will contract 0,4% in 2023, negatively affected by successive shocks. The impact of most of these shocks (except for El Niño) will vanish in 2024 and economic activity will grow again (2,0%). The recovery will be completed in 2025, with output growing around 3,5%.
The economy is expected to grow 0,4% in 2023 and 2,3% in 2024. The second quarter downward surprise in economic activity, the deterioration of El Niño weather forecasts, and the sustained weakness of private spending leads us to revise GDP growth downwards by 1,2pp this year and 0,3pp next year.