Chief Economist
@minesoto2003 Miguel Cardoso is Chief Economist for Spain at BBVA Research, where he leads a team of 13 economists dedicated to the macroeconomic, sector and regional analysis of the Spanish economy. At BBVA Research he has also held positions as Chief Economist for Chile, and Senior Economist for Emerging Markets.
Previously, he was an Assistant Professor (on tenure track) at the Department of Economics of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and worked also as an Advisor to the Director General of Fiscal Planning in the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit in Mexico.
He earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in the U.S., and a BA in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He has authored several publications, with some of his main areas of research being the amplification mechanisms of business cycles, the characteristics of the crisis in Spain and its regional impact, as well as the impact of public policies on the determinants of export capacity, public finance and the labor market.
Latest Publications
Potential
In 1984, two NBA teams let slip the chance of drafting Michael Jordan. The Portland Trail Blazers’ decision was particularly criticised since they drafted Sam Bowie, who never became more than an average player. At the time, the decision seemed justifiable given the various measures that had traditionally pointed to success in the NBA.
Notes on the 2017 State budget
The State budget includes conservative macroeconomic forecasts. In scenarios with greater growth and inflation than forecast, expenditure as a percentage of GDP could fall by more than expected. As always, the uncertainty is around tax revenues.
Consequences of the increase in the Minimum Wage
Every economic policy has intended and unintended consequences. The significant increase in Spain’s legal minimum wage in 2017 will barely have any effect on employment or economic activity. Therefore in principle the measure’s success will lie in the attainment of the objectives presumably pursued: improving the income of workers whose wages are tied to the minimum wage.
More growth, but with more risks
The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.
Freeing up Spain's Autonomous Communities
The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.
Forecast 2017
What will we be talking about in 2017? In macroeconomic terms, 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year of growth, and the consensus seems to point unanimously to a slowdown, although activity will be sufficiently dynamic to continue reducing some of the major imbalances in the Spanish economy.
Challenges for 2017
There are many challenges for 2017, but the most important economic ones can be summed up as maintaining growth, boosting employment and raising wages.
2017: smaller public deficit, revenues and spending both up
Next year the public accounts will once again present an imbalance, and public sector debt will remain stuck at around 100% of GDP. Looking ahead to 2017, the expected increase in corporate taxation will help to reduce the public deficit, but it will have short- and medium-term costs.
Tourism, insecurity and opportunity
The end of 2016 will bring new record figures for the Spanish tourism sector. This development is crucial for an economy that, after the crisis, needed to increase its exposure to external demand and develop labour-intensive sectors. What is the cause of this strong performance?
Recovery takes hold in real-estate sector
The data from the first half of the year shows that the Spanish real-estate sector has in fact recovered and will continue to do so over the next few quarters.
The upcoming downturn
The upward trend in Spain's GDP growth in 2016 has been confirmed, while many factors suggest a downward bias in 2017.
What do we know of the impact of the labour reform of 2012?
Unfortunately, not much yet. In any case, based on the evidence, the various research studies published to date point to positive effects in relation with the creation of employment and the signing of indefinite contracts.
Available in Spanish
Financing for growth
In the bull market before the crisis the Spanish economy grew due to what is called an “agglomeration of factors”: jobs and investment both rose. Yet the productivity of both remained practically stagnant.
Available in Spanish
Rational Expectations
I am part of a cult. At least that is the perception of many economists when I tell them that I studied for my Ph.D. in Minnesota. Since 2000, 6 people who studied or pursued the most important part of their research agenda at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Minnesota have won the Nobel Prize.
Available in Spanish
The counterfactual situation
Given the more uncertain environment that the Spanish economy is facing in 2016, the question is not if the current period of growth that we are observing will come to an end, but rather when; and if when the end comes, we will have been able to reduce the imbalances that built up during the previous crisis
Available in Spanish