By Miguel Cardoso

In Spain, an important part of the growth in the pre-crisis years was driven by accumulated physical capital. In recent years, however, investment has had to adjust to the prevailing economic climate. Moreover, although the level of capital is not relatively low, it has been inefficiently distributed between sectors and regions and hasn't done much to increase productivity

By Miguel Cardoso

Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.

By Miguel Cardoso

The prospects for the Portuguese economy are positive, although the country still has significant imbalances that could slow the pace of recovery if the reforming zeal shown in the past few years is not maintained.

By Miguel Cardoso

The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.

By Miguel Cardoso, Miriam Montañez

Inequality in Spanish household income has increased during the crisis. However, in terms of consumption, inequality decreased. Accordingly, while wealthier families reduced spending by 17.2% between 2007 and 2015, those economically disadvantaged reduced it only by 7.6%.

By Miguel Cardoso

The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.

By Miguel Cardoso

Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.

By Miguel Cardoso

In 1984, two NBA teams let slip the chance of drafting Michael Jordan. The Portland Trail Blazers’ decision was particularly criticised since they drafted Sam Bowie, who never became more than an average player. At the time, the decision seemed justifiable given the various measures that had traditionally pointed to success in the NBA.

By Miguel Cardoso

The State budget includes conservative macroeconomic forecasts. In scenarios with greater growth and inflation than forecast, expenditure as a percentage of GDP could fall by more than expected. As always, the uncertainty is around tax revenues.

By Miguel Cardoso

Every economic policy has intended and unintended consequences. The significant increase in Spain’s legal minimum wage in 2017 will barely have any effect on employment or economic activity. Therefore in principle the measure’s success will lie in the attainment of the objectives presumably pursued: improving the income of workers whose wages are tied to the minimum wage.

By Miguel Cardoso

The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.

By Miguel Cardoso

The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.

By Miguel Cardoso

What will we be talking about in 2017? In macroeconomic terms, 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year of growth, and the consensus seems to point unanimously to a slowdown, although activity will be sufficiently dynamic to continue reducing some of the major imbalances in the Spanish economy.

By Miguel Cardoso

There are many challenges for 2017, but the most important economic ones can be summed up as maintaining growth, boosting employment and raising wages.

By Miguel Cardoso

Next year the public accounts will once again present an imbalance, and public sector debt will remain stuck at around 100% of GDP. Looking ahead to 2017, the expected increase in corporate taxation will help to reduce the public deficit, but it will have short- and medium-term costs.