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Miguel Cardoso

Miguel Cardoso is Chief Economist for Spain at BBVA Research, where he leads a team of 13 economists dedicated to the macroeconomic, sector and regional analysis of the Spanish economy. At BBVA Research he has also held positions as Chief Economist for Chile, and Senior Economist for Emerging Markets.

 

Previously, he was an Assistant Professor (on tenure track) at the Department of Economics of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and worked also as an Advisor to the Director General of Fiscal Planning in the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit in Mexico.

 

He earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in the U.S., and a BA in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He has authored several publications, with some of his main areas of research being the amplification mechanisms of business cycles, the characteristics of the crisis in Spain and its regional impact, as well as the impact of public policies on the determinants of export capacity, public finance and the labor market.


Latest Publications

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Portugal: expansion, with issues to resolve

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The prospects for the Portuguese economy are positive, although the country still has significant imbalances that could slow the pace of recovery if the reforming zeal shown in the past few years is not maintained.

Available in Spanish, English

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Are we wrong about Catalonia?

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The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Causes of change in inequality of consumption

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Inequality in Spanish household income has increased during the crisis. However, in terms of consumption, inequality decreased. Accordingly, while wealthier families reduced spending by 17.2% between 2007 and 2015, those economically disadvantaged reduced it only by 7.6%.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Uncertain impact of uncertainty

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The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.

Available in Spanish, English

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Questions about the recovery

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Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Potential

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In 1984, two NBA teams let slip the chance of drafting Michael Jordan. The Portland Trail Blazers’ decision was particularly criticised since they drafted Sam Bowie, who never became more than an average player. At the time, the decision seemed justifiable given the various measures that had traditionally pointed to success in the NBA.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Notes on the 2017 State budget

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The State budget includes conservative macroeconomic forecasts. In scenarios with greater growth and inflation than forecast, expenditure as a percentage of GDP could fall by more than expected. As always, the uncertainty is around tax revenues.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Consequences of the increase in the Minimum Wage

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Every economic policy has intended and unintended consequences. The significant increase in Spain’s legal minimum wage in 2017 will barely have any effect on employment or economic activity. Therefore in principle the measure’s success will lie in the attainment of the objectives presumably pursued: improving the income of workers whose wages are tied to the minimum wage.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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More growth, but with more risks

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The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Freeing up Spain's Autonomous Communities

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The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Forecast 2017

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What will we be talking about in 2017? In macroeconomic terms, 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year of growth, and the consensus seems to point unanimously to a slowdown, although activity will be sufficiently dynamic to continue reducing some of the major imbalances in the Spanish economy.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Challenges for 2017

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There are many challenges for 2017, but the most important economic ones can be summed up as maintaining growth, boosting employment and raising wages.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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2017: smaller public deficit, revenues and spending both up

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Next year the public accounts will once again present an imbalance, and public sector debt will remain stuck at around 100% of GDP. Looking ahead to 2017, the expected increase in corporate taxation will help to reduce the public deficit, but it will have short- and medium-term costs.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Tourism, insecurity and opportunity

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The end of 2016 will bring new record figures for the Spanish tourism sector. This development is crucial for an economy that, after the crisis, needed to increase its exposure to external demand and develop labour-intensive sectors. What is the cause of this strong performance?

Available in Spanish, English

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Recovery takes hold in real-estate sector

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The data from the first half of the year shows that the Spanish real-estate sector has in fact recovered and will continue to do so over the next few quarters.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English