Chief Economist
@minesoto2003 Miguel Cardoso is Chief Economist for Spain at BBVA Research, where he leads a team of 13 economists dedicated to the macroeconomic, sector and regional analysis of the Spanish economy. At BBVA Research he has also held positions as Chief Economist for Chile, and Senior Economist for Emerging Markets.
Previously, he was an Assistant Professor (on tenure track) at the Department of Economics of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and worked also as an Advisor to the Director General of Fiscal Planning in the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit in Mexico.
He earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in the U.S., and a BA in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He has authored several publications, with some of his main areas of research being the amplification mechanisms of business cycles, the characteristics of the crisis in Spain and its regional impact, as well as the impact of public policies on the determinants of export capacity, public finance and the labor market.
Latest Publications
No gain without pain
Structural reforms since they usually involve a transfer of income that leads to the groups negatively affected mobilising to prevent them. Governments then have to decide how to manage that pain and when: with a large number of measures concentrated into a short time-span, perhaps taking advantage of the mandate afforded by a crisis.
If you build it, will productivity increase?
In Spain, an important part of the growth in the pre-crisis years was driven by accumulated physical capital. In recent years, however, investment has had to adjust to the prevailing economic climate. Moreover, although the level of capital is not relatively low, it has been inefficiently distributed between sectors and regions and hasn't done much to increase productivity
Where are the risks in saving?
Following the marked increase seen in 2009 (to around 9% of GDP), household savings have fallen almost to all-time lows (3.7% at the end of 2017). This has led to concerns due to the possible vulnerability of households and continued growth in consumption over the next few years.
Portugal: expansion, with issues to resolve
The prospects for the Portuguese economy are positive, although the country still has significant imbalances that could slow the pace of recovery if the reforming zeal shown in the past few years is not maintained.
Are we wrong about Catalonia?
The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.
Causes of change in inequality of consumption
Inequality in Spanish household income has increased during the crisis. However, in terms of consumption, inequality decreased. Accordingly, while wealthier families reduced spending by 17.2% between 2007 and 2015, those economically disadvantaged reduced it only by 7.6%.
Uncertain impact of uncertainty
The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.
Questions about the recovery
Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.
Potential
In 1984, two NBA teams let slip the chance of drafting Michael Jordan. The Portland Trail Blazers’ decision was particularly criticised since they drafted Sam Bowie, who never became more than an average player. At the time, the decision seemed justifiable given the various measures that had traditionally pointed to success in the NBA.
Notes on the 2017 State budget
The State budget includes conservative macroeconomic forecasts. In scenarios with greater growth and inflation than forecast, expenditure as a percentage of GDP could fall by more than expected. As always, the uncertainty is around tax revenues.
Consequences of the increase in the Minimum Wage
Every economic policy has intended and unintended consequences. The significant increase in Spain’s legal minimum wage in 2017 will barely have any effect on employment or economic activity. Therefore in principle the measure’s success will lie in the attainment of the objectives presumably pursued: improving the income of workers whose wages are tied to the minimum wage.
More growth, but with more risks
The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.
Freeing up Spain's Autonomous Communities
The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.
Forecast 2017
What will we be talking about in 2017? In macroeconomic terms, 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year of growth, and the consensus seems to point unanimously to a slowdown, although activity will be sufficiently dynamic to continue reducing some of the major imbalances in the Spanish economy.
Challenges for 2017
There are many challenges for 2017, but the most important economic ones can be summed up as maintaining growth, boosting employment and raising wages.