Olga Serna is Principal Economist in the Colombian BBVA Research team, in charge of monitoring and analyzing strategic regulatory developments.
She holds a BSc in Finance and International Affairs from Externado de Colombia University, a graduate study in Actuarial Science from the Nacional de Colombia University, and an MBA from the New York University.
Previously, she worked at the Colombian Resolution and Deposit Insurance Authority (Fogafin) as Head of the Deposit Insurance System leading a group of experts in banking and financial stability.
The Colombian economy will enter a lower growth fase. Private consumption will stabilize at more sustainable levels in the medium term. Inflation will gradually moderate in 2023. The Central Bank will have space to start a gradual interest rate reduction cycle at the end of 2023.
BBVA Research estimate a Colombian economy grow stood at 6.8% YoY this year. In 2023, especially due to a moderation in private consumption, the economy will decelerate healthily to 2.0%. Inflation will close this year at 9.2% and fall to 5.0% by the end of 2023, thanks to the restrictive tone of monetary policy.
The Colombian economy will continue to show resilience in a context of greater global uncertainty, more contractionary monetary policies and strong upward pressures on inflation. We expect the economy to grow 4.5% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, driven by domestic demand and exports.