October 29, 2020
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In October, total card consumption grew 17,0% compared to the same month in 2019 (10,2% in September), consistent with the beginning of Phase 4 of the economic reactivation (started on October 1st).
The recovery in consumption slowed down in the third week of October, due to a slowdown in the consumption of goods, but recovered 1.5 pp with respect to the September record. At a regional level, Barranquilla's recovery stands out, after being for several months the city that lagged the most.
Despite the recovery in service expenditures, consumption showed a contraction in mid-October explained by the drop in goods expenditures. Official data confirms the loss of strength of the rebound in activity captured by our real-time indicators.
After the boost in consumption in September due to the end of confinement, the recovery in consumption moderates in October. The clothing and restaurant sectors, among those most affected by the closure measures, continue their recovery and are approaching positive territory.
Traditional data sometimes could not answer elevant questions and other times it could not have a fast answer to them. The use of Big Data and Data Science allows us to quantify these trends in real time. We process and analyze millions of aggregated and anonymized bank transactions to replicate economic indicators.
Consumption with our clients' cards showed a significant rebound during the last weekly monitoring with improvements in most categories. ATM withdrawals confirm the trend captured in previous reports of fewer withdrawals for higher amounts (in constant currency).
Presentation released by BBVA Research at the workshop del Banco Central Europeo "Tracking the Economy with high-frequency data". We presented our work on consumption and investment to monitor the economy in real time and high definition.
Consumption in the current month of October recovers 2pp compared to last month. The recovery is greater in services, which advance about 3pp while goods do it in 1.6pp. However, there is evidence of a slowdown during the weekend of the school break in most sectors.