Publications

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator recorded a 0.1% month-on-month increase in June, amid a (-)2.0% MoM decline in the services sector

Investment in intangible assets is a key driver of economic growth in Spain. Using financial transaction data, we build a real-time indicator aligned with official statistics that allows for detailed analysis of investment flows across sectors and regions. They show growth is concentrated in a few specialized hubs.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index showed a marked slowdown in its year-over-year growth in June (3.0% compared to 15.6% in May).

The national unemployment rate for May 2025 was 9.0%, lower than 10.3% a year ago and the lowest for a May in the last 24 years. Seasonally adjusted, the rate showed a decreasing trend between June 2024 and April 2025 and was around 9% in the March-May 2025 period.

The impact of geopolitical risks on economic phenomena is undeniable, and demand for research in this field is steadily increasing from governments, regulators, the private sector and multilateral institutions.

The Bank of the Republic maintained the policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided decision. While inflation showed a marginal reduction and growth continues a gradual recovery, they emphasized the larger estimated fiscal deficit and its effect on the economy and the Bank's interest rate profile.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 2.0% YoY in May, bringing the average year-over-year growth variance for the first five months of the year to 5.0% (vs. 1.0% in the same period last year).