Publications

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (IMM BBVA Research) grew 0.3% YoY in June, 1.7 percentage points below the previous month's figure (2.0% YoY)

Carbon sinks are all types of land—usually forested—that capture CO₂ emissions. Their existence is essential for addressing climate change, helping to regulate temperature, and serving as habitats for flora and fauna species. They also provide critical resources such as water.

Investment in intangible assets is a key driver of economic growth in Spain. Using financial transaction data, we build a real-time indicator aligned with official statistics that allows for detailed analysis of investment flows across sectors and regions. They show growth is concentrated in a few specialized hubs.

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

The national unemployment rate for May 2025 was 9.0%, lower than 10.3% a year ago and the lowest for a May in the last 24 years. Seasonally adjusted, the rate showed a decreasing trend between June 2024 and April 2025 and was around 9% in the March-May 2025 period.

Typically, short-term changes in geopolitical risk are monitored by high-frequency, news-based indices, which usually revert to the mean after some time. We complement those measures by developing new structural geopolitical risk (SGR) and economic fragmentation (SEF) country-specific indices since the 1960s.

The Bank of the Republic maintained the policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided decision. While inflation showed a marginal reduction and growth continues a gradual recovery, they emphasized the larger estimated fiscal deficit and its effect on the economy and the Bank's interest rate profile.

Oil prices have experienced high volatility this year. Lower global demand and increased supply from OPEC+ have driven a bearish trend, which was recently interrupted by tensions between Israel and Iran. The outlook remains uncertain, especially concerning a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.