Publications

This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation.

El Niño is a recurring Pacific Ocean warming event that affects Latin American countries in very different ways. Its economic impact depends on each country's exposure and vulnerability, influencing growth, inflation, agriculture and infrastructure through diverse climate transmission channels.

Spain’s labour market remains dynamic, supported by the foreign population, which helps offset demographic ageing. Immigration is key to sustaining employment, though integration faces temporary employment and productivity challenges. The regularisation process is expected to have a limited macroeconomic impact.

The IMM BBVA Research grew 2.9% YoY in April, remaining in positive territory for the eighth consecutive month; considering the April figure, the IMM BBVA Research’s average year-to-date growth rate stands at 2.5%.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 0.4% MoM drop (real, sa) in April, its fourth consecutive decline so far this year, recording an average YoY variation of -2.7% for the January-April 2026 period.

This presentation provides an overview of global military expenditure trends in 2025, drawing on the latest data released on 27 April by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.2% YoY in March, remaining in positive territory for the seventh consecutive month, although deepening the slowdown observed since the beginning of the year.