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Econometrics

Econometrics latest publications

April 20, 2022

Mexico | Considerations on the transmission lag of monetary policy and other macro shocks

The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.

March 22, 2022

Mexico | Gasoline impact on excise taxes on fuels and consumer prices

The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

March 3, 2022

Spain | Crisis and recovery of Spanish economy after two years of COVID-19

This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the GDP deflator and real wages.

November 22, 2021

Spain | Coincident indicator model for housing prices

At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.

November 12, 2021

Spain and EMU | Effects of bottlenecks on inflation and activity

In this presentation, we show the modeling strategy proposed by BBVA Research to identify bottleneck shocks, differentiate them from other supply-side shocks, and calculate their impacts on the European and Spanish economies.

October 18, 2021

Global | No time for empty promises

Climate change is gaining prominence in economic forums. At the biannual meeting in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank, climate issues were no longer relegated to the “risk” or “future challenges” sections of conference papers. Also on the horizon is the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.

July 27, 2021

Global | How likely are decarbonization targets? A data-driven approach

Based on historical evidence, the Economic Watch assesses the plausibility of meeting Net-zero and NDC emission pathways (with GDP growth conditioned or not to BBVA baseline) and suggests that if unprecedented shocks are not induced (e.g. through carbon price policies), climate targets will not be reached.

July 15, 2021

Colombia | Monthly update BBVA GDP Tracker. July 15, 2021

The BBVA GDP tracker allows us to measure the performance of economic activity in real time, including big data variables from transactions in BBVA Colombia. With the most recent data, we estimate that growth in the second quarter of 2021 will be between 12.4% and 14.3%.