April 20, 2022
Econometrics latest publications
The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.
The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the GDP deflator and real wages.
At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.
In this presentation, we show the modeling strategy proposed by BBVA Research to identify bottleneck shocks, differentiate them from other supply-side shocks, and calculate their impacts on the European and Spanish economies.
Climate change is gaining prominence in economic forums. At the biannual meeting in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank, climate issues were no longer relegated to the “risk” or “future challenges” sections of conference papers. Also on the horizon is the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.
Based on historical evidence, the Economic Watch assesses the plausibility of meeting Net-zero and NDC emission pathways (with GDP growth conditioned or not to BBVA baseline) and suggests that if unprecedented shocks are not induced (e.g. through carbon price policies), climate targets will not be reached.
The BBVA GDP tracker allows us to measure the performance of economic activity in real time, including big data variables from transactions in BBVA Colombia. With the most recent data, we estimate that growth in the second quarter of 2021 will be between 12.4% and 14.3%.