Publications

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

NGFS’s new five-year climate scenarios help gauge near-term transition and physical risks, adding compound-hazard modelling and macro-financial feedbacks, but they retain some outdated narratives and overlook recent policy decoupling, limiting realism.

This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of carbon price shocks (EU-ETS) via a SVAR with Narrative Sign Restrictions. Facilitating identification and isolating shocks from demand factors, results indicate a stronger economic impact than previous carbon policy studies, but milder than recent works focused on the EU-ETS.

Overall, the past year has been positive in terms of the evolution of macroeconomic, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in most countries globally.

The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth uncertainty and moderation in ECB bond purchases also contributed to the upside.

Countries that expand their climate policy portfolio exhibit higher climate change mitigation patent filings, low carbon technology trade flows, and green foreign direct investment flows. The coordination and cooperation of international policies is also relevant, showcasing evidence of potential climate policy spillovers.