Econometrics latest publications

September 6, 2022

Mexico | Multidimensional Manufacturing Index

The Multidimensional Manufacturing Index (MMI) is a barometer of the production in this sector that parsimoniously captures information from a broad set of variables that reflects activity in the value chains between Mexico and the US.

August 18, 2022

Argentina | Analysis of Argentina's structural Current Account and its determinants

The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate the structural Current Account balance of Argentina and its long-term determinants

April 20, 2022

Mexico | Considerations on the transmission lag of monetary policy and other macro shocks

The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.

March 22, 2022

Mexico | Gasoline impact on excise taxes on fuels and consumer prices

The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

March 3, 2022

Spain | Crisis and recovery of Spanish economy after two years of COVID-19

This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the GDP deflator and real wages.

November 22, 2021

Spain | Coincident indicator model for housing prices

At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.

November 12, 2021

Spain and EMU | Effects of bottlenecks on inflation and activity

In this presentation, we show the modeling strategy proposed by BBVA Research to identify bottleneck shocks, differentiate them from other supply-side shocks, and calculate their impacts on the European and Spanish economies.

October 18, 2021

Global | No time for empty promises

Climate change is gaining prominence in economic forums. At the biannual meeting in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank, climate issues were no longer relegated to the “risk” or “future challenges” sections of conference papers. Also on the horizon is the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.