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The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.
Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), although mainly due to idiosyncratic factors.
This Working Paper offers rigorous statistical evidence on the influence of the reduction in mobility, derived from the COVID-19 pandemic, on the concentration levels of pollutants that affect air quality in the Metropolitan Area of the Valley …
The Multidimensional Manufacturing Index (MMI) is a barometer of the production in this sector that parsimoniously captures information from a broad set of variables that reflects activity in the value chains between Mexico and the US.
The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate t…
The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.
The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the …
At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.
In this presentation, we show the modeling strategy proposed by BBVA Research to identify bottleneck shocks, differentiate them from other supply-side shocks, and calculate their impacts on the European and Spanish economies.
Climate change is gaining prominence in economic forums. At the biannual meeting in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank, climate issues were no longer relegated to the “risk” or “future challenges” sections of conference papers. Also on the horizon is the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.
Based on historical evidence, the Economic Watch assesses the plausibility of meeting Net-zero and NDC emission pathways (with GDP growth conditioned or not to BBVA baseline) and suggests that if unprecedented shocks are not induced (e.g. through carbon price policies), climate targets will not be reached.
