Publications

The global economy faces a double-edged sword in the last quarter of 2025. On the one hand, risks are mounting linked to US economic policies, a less cooperative international environment, and a host of potential geo-economic and institutional shocks. On the other hand, it maintains greater resilience.

The United States unveils new Gaza peace plan offering hostages release and ceasefire terms. Pentagon presses for increase in weapons

Cutting military spending after the Cold War helped Europe reduce deficits, ease fiscal pressure and limit the crowding-out effect on private investment — boosting potential growth. The famous peace dividend.

Growing international recognition of Palestine & push for two-state solution. Russia-Estonia Airspace Dispute Heightens NATO Tensions

After more than 25 years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and European Union (EU) reached an association agreement in December 2024— a turning point in the history of both regions. It is currently undergoing legal review, and a provisional implementation is expected by the beginning of 2026.

Israel launches ground assault on Gaza with strong international condemnation. Russia‐Belarus military drills, NATO tensions rise

The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU confirmed an already anticipated increase in tariffs, with a limited impact on Spain. Economic activity and inflation remain stable, markets show resilience, and monetary policy in the euro area consolidates without further rate cuts.

The world faces climatic, geopolitical, demographic, and technological uncertainties. Distinguishing between probabilistic, rare-event, and epistemic uncertainty helps turn fog into useful knowledge and enables more lucid, resilient decision-making.