Global | International Commerce Chartbook. October 2026

Global trade is reconfiguring, expanding faster than GDP despite protectionism. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is the main driver, with 30% annual growth in related goods, which now account for almost 20% of total trade.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global trade continues to undergo a reconfiguration. Rising protectionism and a shift toward diversification and self-sufficiency over efficiency have not led to deglobalization. Instead, global trade continues to expand rapidly, outpacing GDP growth. The reorganization of global value chains amid geopolitical shifts is supporting international trade, although the strongest boost to trade growth is currently the AI boom.
• Trade in AI-related goods is growing at around 30% y/y, now accounting for nearly 20% of global trade. Non-AI trade is also expanding, but at a much slower pace of around 5% y/y.
• The US is the largest net importer of AI-related goods, with surging demand for semiconductors, chips, computers, servers, transformers and other inputs driving exports from countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico. Meanwhile, China's AI exports are increasingly shifting toward markets outside the US.
• Strong AI exports are contributing to China's widening trade surplus, while surging AI-related imports are weighing on the US trade balance. The Eurozone's trade balance is coming under pressure from declining exports to both China and the US, alongside rising imports from these markets.
• The average US tariff has remained broadly stable, following the replacement of temporary universal 10% tariffs with permanent tariffs of 10.0%–12.5% and new targeted duties on Canada and Brazil. The recent US–China deal, involving temporary tariff reductions and eased export restrictions, and the preliminary EU–China agreement to limit Chinese automotive exports to Europe have helped prevent a further deterioration in trade relations. However, both arrangements remain very limited in scope.

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