Publications

The recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar—more than 10% since the lows at the beginning of the year—has shifted the price competitiveness of Spanish companies and the purchasing power of households.

Amid rising global uncertainty, trade tensions with the United States are resurfacing. As background, in 2018 the EU responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing levies of 25% on more than 180 products. This had a lasting effect on the pattern of Spanish imports, although the overall economic impact remained limited.

Typically, short-term changes in geopolitical risk are monitored by high-frequency, news-based indices, which usually revert to the mean after some time. We complement those measures by developing new structural geopolitical risk (SGR) and economic fragmentation (SEF) country-specific indices since the 1960s.

The impact of geopolitical risks on economic phenomena is undeniable, and demand for research in this field is steadily increasing from governments, regulators, the private sector and multilateral institutions.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

In recent months, the main feature of the global economic outlook has been the increase in uncertainty. The erratic tariff policy of the American administration and the lack of precedent for recent protectionist shocks have made reading the economic outlook complicated.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

Russia Launches Massive Drone & Missile Attack on Ukraine. Western Nations Sanction Israeli Officials. Reactions to US-China Trade Agreement.