Politics and Geopolitics
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The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
Over 10M people have been affected by Covid-19. Latin America remains in the spotlight. China's security law for Hong Kong worsened China-U.S. relations. Anti-racism movement spread globally. President Putin can have two more six-year terms. Libya’s war intensified. Israel’s annexation plans of West Bank caused tensions.
The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.
In May, the number of infected people by covid-19 exceeded 6M, America became the epicenter. In the US, mass protests after a black citizen was killed in police custody have spread nationwide. US – China relationship has worsened due to the situation in Hong Kong. The war in Libya has escalated. G7 meeting to be postponed.
Political chartbook covering the U.S.A. 2020 presidential election, latest opinion polls, Covid-19 and other key issues for voters.
Coronavirus hits 180 countries. In the US, the epicenter, strict measures may continue till June. In Europe, it is top priority on the political agenda. G20 announced a united front against the pandemic. Tensions between China and the US due to the virus are easing off. The oil price war triggered a major fall in oil price.
Political chartbook covering Democratic primaries, opinion polls, Democratic and Republican Conventions and U.S. 2020 presidential elections.
The main hot spot was the coronavirus outbreak, which spread across the globe. Geopolitical developments in Syria’s Idlib province created further uncertainty. US President Trump was acquitted from all charges in the US Senate. The United Kingdom and the EU have resumed trade talks to define the post-Brexit period.