Publications

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

Typically, short-term changes in geopolitical risk are monitored by high-frequency, news-based indices, which usually revert to the mean after some time. We complement those measures by developing new structural geopolitical risk (SGR) and economic fragmentation (SEF) country-specific indices since the 1960s.

Oil prices have experienced high volatility this year. Lower global demand and increased supply from OPEC+ have driven a bearish trend, which was recently interrupted by tensions between Israel and Iran. The outlook remains uncertain, especially concerning a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

BBVA Research’s forecasts released this past week point to slight changes in GDP growth expectations, despite the fact that the economy has been exposed to significant shocks.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

Ukraine Launches deep-strike drone attacks on Russian strategic assets. Deadly incident in Gaza. Dutch Prime Minister resigns

The tariff hikes being pushed through by the United States since the start of Donald Trump's second term are genuinely unprecedented. Not in the last century have we witnessed such a sudden and erratic shift in trade policiy implemented within such a short space of time.