Publications

Following its July pause, the ECB has adopted a more hawkish tone due to renewed geopolitical tensions and the surge in oil prices. The September rate decision remains open, depending on incoming data and geopolitical developments. If the Strait remains closed, it will be very difficult for the ECB to avoid another hike.

On July 23, the USTR imposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies. Mexico faces an additional 10% tariff for failing to effectively enforce its ban on goods produced with forced labor, constituting a USMCA violation.

US–Iran conflict intensifies as both sides continue military strikes across the Gulf. Russia and Ukraine exchange major long-range attacks

Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, defense has become key in Europe. BBVA Research has developed a high-frequency indicator based on Council of Ministers agreements to track Spanish defense spending. Data shows a significant rise since 2022, reflecting a clear modernization of national defense capabilities.

Although the USMCA remains in force until 2036, its annual reviews and its lower level of investment protection compared with other treaties reinforce the importance of a stable regulatory framework, reliable institutions, and the rule of law to provide long-term certainty required to attract investment to Mexico.

Iran holds funeral ceremonies for the Supreme Leader. NATO prepares major defense announcements. Russia launches one of its deadliest recent attacks on Kyiv ahead of the NATO Summit

The U.S. decision not to extend the USMCA confirms our baseline scenario that the agreement will remain in force. The USMCA will remain in force until 2036 unless all three parties agree to extend it.