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January 24, 2018

Portugal consolidates its economic recovery

According to the information available, 4Q17 Portuguese GDP grew at 0.4% QoQ, SWDA, a similar rate to that seen in 3Q17. This would be consistent with the latest BBVA Research scenario for Portugal (+2.6% in 2017 and +2.3% in 2018).

November 8, 2017

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecas…

October 4, 2017

U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. October 2017

Economic activity increased in 47 states, and declined in AK, DE and WV. Stronger global growth, a rebound in the mining sector and increased trade activity supporting regional growth. Florida and Texas to face headwinds from hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but effects should be transitory. Fundamentals in the Sunbelt region re…
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September 8, 2017

Turkey: Activity accelerates further

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expe…

December 12, 2016

Spain | Growth remains high in 4Q16, but will decelerate in 2017

The recovery of the Spanish economy continued in the fourth quarter. The estimates show a quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) of 0.8%, a figure similar to that recorded in the last year and a half. Thus, 2016 would close with an annual average growth of around 3.3%, which will lead to a deceleration of activity to around 2.5% in 201…

October 13, 2016

Spain | 3Q16 growth remains around last year's levels

The recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the third quarter. It is estimated that GDP growth (QoQ) may be been between 0.7% and 0.8% in 3Q16. Thus, forecasts included in the BBVA Research scenario remain unchanged (3.1% for 2016 y 2.3% for 2017), but the valuation regarding downside risks for next year remains …

January 28, 2016

Spain | Agents' confidence moderates in the beginning of 2016

Despite agents' expectations remaining positive, a negative adjustment in the components of both industry and consumer confidence is observed in January: the two indicators reduced their gap in regards to pre-crisis averages.

January 7, 2016

Spain | The agents' confidence picks up at the end of 2015

The agents' expectations are positive and show a widespread optimism in all components of both industrial and consumer confidence. Both indicators widened the gap with pre-crisis average and, in the case of consumers, the historical maximum has been reached. On balance, the 4T15 consolidated a year of positive expectations.