The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate the structural Current Account balance of Argentina and its long-term determinants
Balance of payments
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It is important to understand what was going on in the past year’s BoP abnormalities and to predict this year’s BoP items while investigating the sustainability of these abnormalities.
In contrast to the current account deficit of USD 4,238 million posted in 2019, this indicator showed a surplus of USD 26,571 million in 2020 as the trade balance on non-oil goods registered a much higher positive figure.
In contrast to the current account deficit recorded in the third quarter of 2019, this indicator showed a surplus of USD 17.498 billion in the third quarter of 2020, mainly due to the much higher positive balance on non-oil goods.
The data corresponding to the third quarter shows a smaller output contraction in line with the recovery following the pandemic, higher public deficit due to the fiscal effort to mitigate the impact and a lower current account deficit.
Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.
Economic growth will continue to be led by investment in view of the expected stabilisation in consumption spending. We estimate GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 will be at 3.0% each year and inflation at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Central Bank will keep its interest rates stable for a long time.
For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On t…
The balance of payment registered a surplus of 4.267 millions of euros in May, which, on the positive side, was explained by tourism and the lower energetic deficit. The financing account registered a net capital outflow of 35.273 millions of …
The balance of payments registered a 2671 million of euro superavit, which can be explained through the positive balance in tourism and a lower energetic deficit. Good exports recovered dynamism at the start of 2T16, while imports fell back (2,…
The balance of payments registered a surplus of 1.144 millions of euros in March (369 millions less than the value registered in the same month of 2015) which in principle can be explained by the positive current account balance (836 millions of euros). Investment flows registered a net capital income of 601 millions of eu…
Balance of payments recorded a deficit of 761 million euros in February, 1,231 million less than a year ago. Investment flows resulted in a net capital influx of 5,418 million euros, which is reversed if you exclude financial and monetary institutions. In the YTD, the current account remains in surplus.