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Global growth continues in a smooth downward path, led by the weakness of the industrial sector and exports due to trade tensions. Persistent low inflation led central banks to reassess their monetary policy stance. We revised downward our world GDP forecast 0.1pp to 3.3% for 2019 and 2020, with strongly downward risks

Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.

Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this …