BCRA latest publications

April 15, 2019

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

We revised slightly to the downside the growth of 2019 to -1.2% due to the prolongation of the monetary astringency, maintaining the vision of a positive quarterly growth since 1Q19. Inflation will fall more gradually than expected, reaching 35% YoY due to the volatility of the exchange rate and the higher indexation of the…

February 1, 2019

Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.

October 23, 2018

Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 201…

July 24, 2018

Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% …

April 12, 2018

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreem…