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Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
The recent Hot Sale boosted spending levels in goods above pre-pandemic records after all items showed a contraction in consumption during April. Construction spending forecasts a slowdown in activity. The new wave of contagions impacts ATM withdrawals.
Consumption in May is slightly below that recorded prior to the pandemic. Despite the end of the mobility restrictions imposed by Covid-19, the days of protests and roadblocks caused consumption to decelerate by 1.5 percentage points compared to April.
Despite the YoY peak in consumption growth, spending levels have not been able to return to pre-pandemic figures. Activity is forecast to increase in March and April, compared to 2020, contrary to what is expected to happen with supermarket purchases.
Consumption so far in April has been affected by the new mobility restrictions implemented in most of the country and is 2% below the figure recorded in the same period in 2019, changing the trend observed in February and March, when it was already 17% higher.
Total consumption is 10% below that recorded in the same period in 2019. On the other hand, consumption of services in April backs down to levels similar to those recorded in January (-40% compared to 2019), a month in which mobility restrictions were also implemented.
Consumption in April is again below the level registered prior to the pandemic due to new mobility restrictions and a calendar effect due to Easter. Services suffer the largest deterioration in the month, dropping 40% below the level recorded in 2019 and at levels similar to those of Jan-21.