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72.7 billion euros, 91% of the planned total, has been approved over the lifetime of the Recovery Plan, but only around 33.5 billion (42% of the planned amount) have been resolved. In total, it is estimated that the funds would be reaching more than 500,000 businesses and families.
BBVA Research, through its GDP Tracker tool, monitors the performance of the economy in real time and makes short-term GDP forecasts. For the second quarter, the GDP tracker forecasts YoY GDP growth between 0.1% and 1.3%. In addition, for the third quarter, growth is forecast to be between 1.1% and 2.2%.
BBVA Research presented at NBER Fall 2022 in the conference Innovative Data in Household Finance: Opportunities and Challenges.
In November, our real-time indicator for household consumption behavior fell 2.3% YoY in real terms. The slowdown is generalized by type of goods and services and by city. At the end of the month, some disccount sales boosted electronic purchas…
In September, total consumption with BBVA cards fell 9.4% YoY in real terms. Most of the categories contracted their average real spending level per transaction, remaining below the pre-pandemic level. Our indicators point to a flattening of ec…
Our Big Data high frequency indicator to measure household consumption in Colombia shows a decelerating trend, which has become steeper in the second half of the year. Household expenditure moderation has been driven mainly by goods (in contractive territory) but also by services, as expected.
We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to compute real-time responses to policy impulses in a period of rapidly changing shocks.
In August, total consumption with BBVA cards fell 2.9% YoY in real terms, thus returning to negative ground after July's increase. Most of the items contracted after the good performance they had had last month.
Total consumption with BBVA cards grew 6.5% YoY in July in real terms, reversing the negative performance of June, as did the great majority of categories.
In July, household consumption continued its deceleration process, which was generalized to all cities and types of spending. The greater moderation in the purchase of goods compared to services stood out, although the latter also presented low…
In June, total consumption with BBVA cards, in real terms, fell 4.2% YoY, the lowest value since February 2021. Spending declines are evident in all categories.
We construct five sentiment measures based on the GDELT database, representing the Tone, Optimism, Attention, Tone Dispersion, and Emotional Polarity of Chinese stock markets. All these news media sentiment measures are shown to have significant predictive power for Chinese stock market returns and volatilities.
