Big data analysis
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In August, total consumption with BBVA cards fell 2.9% YoY in real terms, thus returning to negative ground after July's increase. Most of the items contracted after the good performance they had had last month.
Total consumption with BBVA cards grew 6.5% YoY in July in real terms, reversing the negative performance of June, as did the great majority of categories.
In July, household consumption continued its deceleration process, which was generalized to all cities and types of spending. The greater moderation in the purchase of goods compared to services stood out, although the latter also presented lower growth compared to the previous year.
In June, total consumption with BBVA cards, in real terms, fell 4.2% YoY, the lowest value since February 2021. Spending declines are evident in all categories.
We construct five sentiment measures based on the GDELT database, representing the Tone, Optimism, Attention, Tone Dispersion, and Emotional Polarity of Chinese stock markets. All these news media sentiment measures are shown to have significant predictive power for Chinese stock market returns and volatilities.
In June, consumption moderated despite a VAT-free day with a significant positive impact. Spending on services slowed the most. Still, consumption growth remains at high rates.
In May, total consumption with BBVA cards, in real terms, grew 10.2% YoY. The latest data from our real time indicators show a weakness in the economic recovery process.
The first half of 2022 is fraught with negative shocks to the Chinese economy. The default of Evergrande Group, mounting geopolitical risks concerns and the sweep of Omicron variant etc. not only brought strong headwinds to economic growth but also resulted in the deterioration of China’s financial vulnerabilities.