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Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
The end of the state of alarm prompted the recovery of spending with BBVA credit and debit cards or at BBVA POS terminals in May, which were 19% higher than those made in the same period of 2019 (13% in April).
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
We offer a novel methodology combining high frequency card transaction data from BBVA and point-of-sale data from cash operations registered at convenience stores from Frogtek by Clarity AI to study changes in consumption patterns relative to variations in income, including changes in items consumed and payment channel.
The economy of the Region of Murcia may have shrunk by 9.7% in 2020, and might grow 5.5% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022. Public policies and the lower weight of social consumption softened the impact of COVID-19. Consumption, investment and exports will push the economy through 2021 and, sith risks, NGEU funds through 2022.
The recent Hot Sale boosted spending levels in goods above pre-pandemic records after all items showed a contraction in consumption during April. Construction spending forecasts a slowdown in activity. The new wave of contagions impacts ATM withdrawals.
Spending with BBVA credit and debit cards or BBVA POS terminals in April were 13% in relation to the same month of 2019, 5 points less than in March. The growth in spending with Spanish cards, both face-to-face (10%) and online (128%), offset the adjustment in foreign card transactions.
Despite the YoY peak in consumption growth, spending levels have not been able to return to pre-pandemic figures. Activity is forecast to increase in March and April, compared to 2020, contrary to what is expected to happen with supermarket purchases.