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    Order our publications chronologically from the most recent to the oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.

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    July 9, 2022

    Mexico | How sensitive is GDP to public spending?

    The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.

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    March 3, 2022

    Spain | Crisis and recovery of Spanish economy after two years of COVID-19

    This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the GDP deflator and real wages.

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    April 28, 2021

    Spain | The cyclical situation of the economy one year…

    This Economic Watch evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. For this purpose, we use observed data up to 4Q2020 and real-time estimates for 1Q2021 from BBVA Rese…

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    December 23, 2019

    Business and credit cycles, financial instability and …

    The paper presents a quasi-historiographical or “narrative” analysis of the most critical developments occurring prior to and through the last nine recessions in light of Minsky’s theory of financial instability.

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    May 7, 2018

    Protectionism and global prospects

    Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.

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    June 19, 2012

    Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models

    This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time

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