Business cycles

Business cycles latest publications

May 7, 2018

Protectionism and global prospects

Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.

June 19, 2012

Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models

This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time
  • Geography Tags
  • USA