The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.
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This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the GDP deflator and real wages.
This Economic Watch evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. For this purpose, we use observed data up to 4Q2020 and real-time estimates for 1Q2021 from BBVA Rese…
The paper presents a quasi-historiographical or “narrative” analysis of the most critical developments occurring prior to and through the last nine recessions in light of Minsky’s theory of financial instability.
Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.
This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time