Publications

The CBRT hiked the policy rate by 350bps to 46%, surprising the consensus of no change, and narrowed down the interest rate corridor to 44.5%-49%. Contrary to previous assessments of recent shocks as transitory, the CBRT becomes more prudent hiking its main tool and reaching an availability of the funding rate up to 49%.

The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 42.5% as expected. Following the positive surprise of Feb CPI, the CBRT remains comfortable despite stronger domestic demand than expected. We expect 250bps cut in April and the pace of rate cuts to decelerate June onwards, reaching 31.5% policy rate by end 2025.

The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 47.5%, beating the market expectations of 150-200bps cut (vs. our 100bps cut call), but with a narrowed down symmetric interest rate corridor of 150bps from 300bps. The distribution of the meeting dates will be key to see how the real rates will evolve.

The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.

The Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 50%. The bank smoothed its tone by changing the statement that monetary policy will be tightened when necessary to that monetary policy tools will be used effectively. Still, they emphasize inflation expectations and pricing behaviors as risks to the disinflation.

The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in October and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.

CBRT altered forward guidance to more dovish side as referring tight stance by means of keeping the policy rate unchanged and promised to keep the policy rate at a level above inflation.