Publications

The CBRT cut the policy rate by 300bps to 43%, above the 250bps consensus, with similar cuts in the corridor (41.5%-46%). The tone seems to turn dovish vs. June, signaling scope for continued cuts at each meeting, with the size reviewed with a focus on inflation outlook, despite ongoing price and financial stability risks.

The CBRT kept the policy rate (one-week repo, 46%) and the width of the interest rate corridor (44.5%-49%) the same, surprising the market expectation of a cut in the upper bound of the corridor.

The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 42.5% as expected. Following the positive surprise of Feb CPI, the CBRT remains comfortable despite stronger domestic demand than expected. We expect 250bps cut in April and the pace of rate cuts to decelerate June onwards, reaching 31.5% policy rate by end 2025.

The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.

The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.

The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.

The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.

The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.