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The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in October and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
CBRT altered forward guidance to more dovish side as referring tight stance by means of keeping the policy rate unchanged and promised to keep the policy rate at a level above inflation.
Consumer prices increased by 0.58% in July, this time surprising on the downside (1% BBVA Research vs. 0.8% Consensus). Led by the positive base effects, annual inflation decelerated to 11.76% from 12.62% in June. We expect consumer inflation t…
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong fav…
Consumer prices increased by 0.99% mom in September lower than the median consensus (1.38%, Bloomberg and BBVA Research). Hence, annual inflation decreased to one digit level of 9.3% from 15% in August, the lowest level since January 2017. We expect annual inflation to get closer to 12.5% at the end of the year.
Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept its policy rate (one-week repo, 24%) unchanged in line with expectations. We consider the decision as the right one as it supports the disinflation path and reinforces credibility. In our view, the CBRT should wait …
The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked policy interest rate (one-week repo) by 625bps to 24.0%. The hike is remarkably higher than expectations (21% Bloomberg) and even ours (22.75% BBVA Research). The decision of the CBRT doesn't only contribute to fig…
The Central Bank (CBRT) decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged (17.75%) despite the market expectations (including ours) of 100 bps tightening. We expect the CBRT will have to tight later, maybe tighter depending on the degree of fiscal …
The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked the one-week repo rate by 125 bps to 17.75%, clearly above market expectations (BBVA Research 50bps). With the decision, the CBRT reinforces its stance on inflation worries in the short term and takes a solid step to restore credibility against rapidly worsening inflation expectations.
Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the next CBRT meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance …
