Publications

When considering long-term economic growth, climate change is highly relevant. It is not only about managing the immediate losses from extreme weather events, which after the initial shock are often mitigated through public spending, insurance payouts, and private reconstruction.

Climate change is not neutral for potential GDP: unmanaged warming acts as a negative supply shock, while early, credible mitigation and adaptation can offset damages and may generate long-run gains, albeit with high uncertainty and strong scenario dependence.

The Kaya identity is an analytical tool that helps to understand the behavior of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through four factors: population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and the emissions intensity of energy.

COP30 brought modest but real advances in adaptation, finance and just transition, despite failing to close the ambition gap or add enforcement. Systemic inertia persists, yet Brazil’s leadership in forest finance and new trade-climate items offers a positive signal.

The question is not whether the world will decarbonize, but whether it will be achieved efficiently and in time to mitigate climate change.

This paper presents a methodological framework to quantify the economic impact of natural disasters. It estimates a damage function and measures employment effects using a dynamic spatial model. The 2024 DANA in Valencia validates the approach and highlights the importance of both location and compensation mechanisms.

The insufficient ambition and lack of implementation of the climate commitments made at the COPs, in a context of weakened multilateralism, make it reasonable to consider alternative, more pragmatic avenues for advancing the fight against climate change.