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October's inflation surprised to the upside, with broad-based pressures stemming from both the food and non-food baskets. The annual inflation rate rose to 5.51%, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance and signaling that interest rates will likely remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Monthly inflation in September was 0.32%, above the expectations of analysts (0.24% according to the Central Bank’s survey) and BBVA Research (0.23%). As a result, annual inflation stood at 5.18%, an increase of 8 basis points compared to August, marking three consecutive months of increases.

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

Inflation in Colombia eased in May 2025, reaching 5.05% annually, its lowest in 43 months, with a monthly change of 0.32%. This moderation was mainly driven by the non-food basket, led by services and regulated items, correcting April's uptick and paving the way for gradual rate cuts by the Central Bank.

Monthly inflation in February was 1.14%, while annual inflation stood at 5.28%. This result exceeded market analysts' expectations, as the Banco de la República survey had anticipated a monthly variation of 0.98%.

Monthly inflation in January was 0.94%, exceeding analysts' expectations (0.82% projected in the Central Bank of Colombia’s survey). As a result, the annual variation remained stable for the third consecutive month at approximately 5.22%.

In November, monthly inflation was 0.27%, with an annual rate of 5.20%, consistent with our expectations and closely aligned with market analysts’ projections, which, according to the Central Bank of Colombia's survey, anticipated a monthly variation of 0.21%. This result is 21 basis points below the previous month's figure