Colombia Economic Outlook. March 2026

Summary

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global growth achieved a soft landing in 2025, but the outbreak of the conflict in Iran adds uncertainty and pressure on energy prices, conditioning the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB.
• In 2026 and 2027, the moderation in household consumption will reduce domestic demand traction. Public spending will cushion this slowdown, while fixed investment will remain lagging, growing by just 1.4% and 1.0%.
• Inflation will rebound to 6.5% by the end of 2026 due to the minimum wage and climatic factors, which will lead the Central Bank to raise the monetary policy rate to 12.25% before starting cuts in 2027.
• The high fiscal deficit and the increase in gross debt raise the cost of financing, while the current account deficit will widen to 2.8% of GDP in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027.
• Given the strong fiscal restrictions that limit the public sector, it is a priority for private investment to take the lead in order to boost economic growth and reduce poverty.

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