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In 2022 the activity in Uruguay will grow 4.7%, with an important statistical contribution that leaves the 4T21 and the contribution of investment, external demand and consumption to a lesser extent. The conflict in Europe has a moderate net positive impact through the rise in commodity prices for now.
One of the strongest price rallies in history for various commodities (e.g. oil, copper, steel) is consolidating in 2021. The speed of the upside movement could make you think that we are at the start of a new commodities supercycle. If we are, it would be quite different from the previous ones.
In this paper, we look at China-Africa trade links in more detail and evaluate some of the implications of Africa’s growing commodity export dependency on China going forward, particularly in the context of a slowdown in China.
