Publications

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a very important variable for the performance of the economy. It is investment that generates jobs and, according to most academic studies, stimulates greater economic growth.

The question with which I begin this column has two messages at its core: trust in Colombia exists at the international and local level and we must maintain that in the coming years. Maintaining trust is an ongoing process and things need to be done every day to achieve it.

We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both government approval ratings and confidence indexes.

Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stable in October, accelerating in EM but slowing in DM

The consumer confidence index fell by 26% in annual terms during January 2017, which represents the biggest annual contraction in the history of the index. More negative sentiments on both the current and future economic situation of the country were the main drivers behind the January’s sharp annual drop in the consumer confidence index

In July, even though both industry and consumer confidence fell (-1,0 y -3,5 pp, respectively), the optimism levels are still higher than the pre-crisis figures. This time, agent expectatives deterioration was caused, in equal measures, by domestic and external factors.

Opposing movements in the confidence indicators were observed in May. That of the consumers grew (1,3 pp) because of the improved expectatives about the economic situation and unemplopyment. That of the industries fell (2,0 pp) principally due to the less positive production expectatives. All in all, confidence remains above pre crisis levels.

Despite mixed signals in march, both household and industry confidence fell slightly during the first quarter (-2,1 y -4,1 pp on average). All in all, confidence levels continue to surpass pre crisis levels, which reinforces BBVA Research's diagnostic, pointing at a continued economic growth in the start of 2016.