Confidence latest publications

June 20, 2019

Mexico | How's Foreign Direct Investment Looking?

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a very important variable for the performance of the economy. It is investment that generates jobs and, according to most academic studies, stimulates greater economic growth.

November 30, 2018

Colombia | How can confidence in the country be strengthened?

The question with which I begin this column has two messages at its core: trust in Colombia exists at the international and local level and we must maintain that in the coming years. Maintaining trust is an ongoing process and things need to be done every day to achieve it.

May 7, 2018

Protectionism and global prospects

Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.

March 8, 2018

Assessing Corruption with Big Data

We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both gover…

November 24, 2017

Global | Global growth continues on a strong footing

Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stabl…

October 18, 2017

Portugal: growth picked up in 3Q17

The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.

February 20, 2017

Mexico | Economic pessimism and the inflation spike affect consumer confidence

The consumer confidence index fell by 26% in annual terms during January 2017, which represents the biggest annual contraction in the history of the index. More negative sentiments on both the current and future economic situation of the country were the main drivers behind the January’s sharp annual drop in the consumer co…

July 29, 2016

Spain | The second semester started with less optimism between consumers and producers

In July, even though both industry and consumer confidence fell (-1,0 y -3,5 pp, respectively), the optimism levels are still higher than the pre-crisis figures. This time, agent expectatives deterioration was caused, in equal measures, by domestic and external factors.