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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a very important variable for the performance of the economy. It is investment that generates jobs and, according to most academic studies, stimulates greater economic growth.
The question with which I begin this column has two messages at its core: trust in Colombia exists at the international and local level and we must maintain that in the coming years. Maintaining trust is an ongoing process and things need to be done every day to achieve it.
Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.
We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the …
Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global…
The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.
The consumer confidence index fell by 26% in annual terms during January 2017, which represents the biggest annual contraction in the history of the index. More negative sentiments on both the current and future economic situation of the country were the main drivers behind the January’s sharp annual drop in the consumer co…
In July, even though both industry and consumer confidence fell (-1,0 y -3,5 pp, respectively), the optimism levels are still higher than the pre-crisis figures. This time, agent expectatives deterioration was caused, in equal measures, by dom…
Despite the improvement in industry and consumer confidence in June (2,1 y 0,6 puntos, respectively) the balance in the second quarter showed mixed signals. Regarding consumers, confidence improved progressively, whereas in terms of industry, o…
Opposing movements in the confidence indicators were observed in May. That of the consumers grew (1,3 pp) because of the improved expectatives about the economic situation and unemplopyment. That of the industries fell (2,0 pp) principally due …
Despite mixed signals in march, both household and industry confidence fell slightly during the first quarter (-2,1 y -4,1 pp on average). All in all, confidence levels continue to surpass pre crisis levels, which reinforces BBVA Research's diagnostic, pointing at a continued economic growth in the start of 2016.
Despite household and industry confidence indicators diminishing in February, the moderation in terms of optimism was lower than the one observed at the beginning of the year. Unemployment expectatives explain the fall in consumer confidence, while expectatives concerning order and inventory portfolios illustrate the evolut…
