Publications

In the second week of February, in-person spending in the affected Andalusian provinces almost fully reversed the negative impact of heavy rainfall and flooding. However, tourism-related spending, both foreign and interprovincial, continues to show weakness due to the ongoing railway disruption with Madrid.

Colombia’s GDP rose 2.6% in 2025 in a domestic-demand rebound. Final consumption grew 4.2%, while investment was uneven—equipment surged but construction fell. Net exports subtracted as imports (+8.4%) outpaced exports (+1.8%).

After two weeks of railway disruption, consumption in the affected provinces shows a more generalized slowdown. Growth in domestic card spending moderates, while foreign card spending has already turned negative. The largest impact continues to be concentrated in bilateral flows between Madrid and the affected provinces.

BBVA Research’s Big Data consumption indicator shows that spending remained broadly stable during the 2025 Christmas season, with a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Black Friday 2025 reshaped spending in Colombia: household consumption and business investment soared versus a normal weekend, led by booming apparel sales and uneven regional patterns, yet real growth slipped slightly compared with the 2024 Black Friday weekend.

GDP accelerated to 3.6% y/y in Q3 2025 (1.2% q/q sa). Final consumption led; investment was uneven—equipment strong, construction weak—while net trade detracted. With firm domestic demand and lower inventories, the 2025 call (2.5%) tilts upward.

GDP rose 2.1% y/y in Q2 2025, fueled by consumption, especially durable goods. Investment focused on machinery and civil works, but buildings weighed down growth. The 2025 forecast remains at 2.3%, with room for upside if positive trends strengthen.