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February 19, 2019

Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2019

The economy of Castile and León Aragon may have grown 2.2% in 2018, and will reach 2.3% in 2019, to moderate to 1.9% in 2020. It will create over 35,000 new jobs by 2020, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. Total employment will be still far from its pre-crisis level. Incl…

October 31, 2018

Aragon Outlook and Prospects. Fourth quarter 2018

Aragon could grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 in an export-friendly environment, with investment plans underway and a favourable economic policy. Uncertainty remains at high levels.

October 4, 2018

Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation …

July 23, 2018

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging in…

July 17, 2018

Turkey | Still supportive data but losing pace

The IP grew by 6.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, above the market consensus of 5.5%. Despite the still positive trend, the highest monthly deterioration of 1.6% since September 2016 signals the increasing likelihood of a more rapid adjustment than expected. We expect GDP growth to come down to 3.8% in 2018.

July 17, 2018

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodativ…

June 14, 2018

Turkey | Still solid activity in April…to decelerate

The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP grow…

May 9, 2018

Measuring Retail Trade using Card Transactional Data

We construct a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain using data from BBVA clientS from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale terminals. Results indexes are robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI, a…