August 3, 2020
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In the second quarter of 2020, very marked differentiated effects were seen in remittances by region. The states of the Northwest region and the Traditional region presented increases in their flow of remittances, while the Central and South-Southeast region contractions, which leads us to propose THREE HYPOTHESES.
In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.
Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wait and see if the trend consolidates given the reopening of the economy.
June 1, 2020
Mexico | Remittances almost immune to coronavirus crisis, decreasing by just 2.6% in April
Despite the unemployment rate increasing from 4.4% to 14.7% between March and April in the U.S. the flow of this resource fell by just 2.6% during April, amounting to USD 2,861 million. In April, remittances to Guatemala fell by 20.2%, while remittances to El Salvador fell by 40.0%.
There will continue to be support for a low-carbon economy, but considering the short-term impact so that it does not slow down post-crisis recovery.
The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.
Although it is difficult to separate the contributions of the different factors shaping the economic and health crisis, public policies and measures are of tremendous importance. A successful exit strategy and achieving the highest possible level of certainty will accelerate the economic recovery.
The health crisis is causing an unprecedented collapse in consumption. Spending on durable goods loses in three months what it has regained in seven years. The decline in vehicle purchase intentions anticipates a significant contraction in demand in 2020, which will rebound in 2021.