Publications

45.9% of women and 31.3% of men who sent remittances do so to cover health expenses (medical attention, medicines, laboratory tests, hospital, etc.) in households in Mexico. By the end of 2020, remittances could reach USD $ 39.4 billion, + 8.1% y/y.

In June, GDP went down by 18.1% YoY, reflecting the isolation measures implemented since mid-March in order to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.

Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wait and see if the trend consolidates given the reopening of the economy.

There will continue to be support for a low-carbon economy, but considering the short-term impact so that it does not slow down post-crisis recovery.

The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.

The health crisis is causing an unprecedented collapse in consumption. Spending on durable goods loses in three months what it has regained in seven years. The decline in vehicle purchase intentions anticipates a significant contraction in demand in 2020, which will rebound in 2021.

Spanish public finances are not in the best position to face this crisis. Since 2015, policies to reduce taxes and increase expenditure have impaired the fiscal structural balance.