COVID-19 crisis latest publications
The challenging context that Colombia is facing due to the higher peak of contagions, the hard economic conditions and the slow recovery of employment, pose a challenge for all of us. This must be faced with hope in order to quickly reach a consensus that will sustain social spending and propel us back to recovery.
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
June 1, 2021
Mexico | Remittances surprise in April (+ 39.1%), world remittances contract 2.4% in 2020
In April 2021, 4,048 million USD entered Mexico in remittances, it is the second largest month exceeded only by March 2021. In 2020, the World Bank estimated that remittances worldwide could fall 19.9% in 2020, however, the latest estimates suggest that they only contracted 2.4%.
The recent Hot Sale boosted spending levels in goods above pre-pandemic records after all items showed a contraction in consumption during April. Construction spending forecasts a slowdown in activity. The new wave of contagions impacts ATM withdrawals.
The global economy keeps recovering in spite of the uncertain epidemiological context. World GDP growth should be 5.9% in 2021. The worsening health situation slows down economic activity in Uruguay, which will grow less than expected in 2021.
Despite the YoY peak in consumption growth, spending levels have not been able to return to pre-pandemic figures. Activity is forecast to increase in March and April, compared to 2020, contrary to what is expected to happen with supermarket purchases.
In March, the unemployment rate declined, compared to February, but with a weak performance of the labor market. As of March 2021, it had recovered 79% of the 6.0 million jobs lost between February and April, the time of the worst labor market deterioration.