April 9, 2021
COVID-19 latest publications
Consumption growth sharply accelerated during March compared with last year lockdowns, this increasing growth rates are observed across all countries and sectors.
Despite the difficult global context brought about by COVID, the Spanish exports of goods maintained their export market destination and gained competitiveness and share in international trade. Outlook is favourable, although the uncertainty about the pandemic remains high and its impact on global activity is relevant.
Social Security affiliarion rose by 70,800 in March and unemployment fell by 59,100. Seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 8,000 and unemployment by 20,000. In Q1, job creation moderated (0.2% q/q q/q CVEC) and unemployment rose (0.5%). There were still 1,184,000 workers with limited activity
The first quarter has seen much more doubt surrounding the economy in Europe than America. The latest wave of the pandemic is severely impacting the largest countries in the area. The situation will improve though, with the acceleration of vaccination drives and the knock-on effect of increased growth in the United States.
As it stands, the best health and economic policy for Europe and Spain would be a massive drive to quickly vaccinate the population against COVID-19. Given the supply restrictions on deliveries, vaccines must be optimized so that they can be administered as efficiently as possible.
COVID-19 hit international trade in 2020, paralyzing activity in several sectors and disrupting global supply chains. Demand plummeted and trade flows were severely damaged. The upward trend in the export of Spanish goods that had been ongoing since 2010 was also interrupted.
Total consumption continues to be unable to grow steadily, remaining at around 0% YoY. The effect of the beginning of the lockdown a year ago is starting to be felt in the different categories. Based on our indicators, activity is expected to grow again in 1Q21, although a second wave of contagions could weaken consumption.
The expansion of global trade has slowed in recent years, following a long period of exuberance. How will trade flows evolve over the next decade, taking into account recent trends such as the pandemic and climate change, as well as other factors?