COVID-19 latest publications
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
June will be a key month for discovering how the two main central banks—the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB)—plan to begin to reverse the unprecedented expansionary policies launched at the start of the COVID-19 crisis.
After having seemingly vanished as a source of concern for many years, the fear of inflation has re-emerged, along with the first green shoots of recovery.
The consumption growth rates in May were lower across all countries except Mexico due to the Covid-19 impact starting to improve in May 2020.
The labor market will recover from the COVID-19 crisis, but the resolution of its structural weaknesses will still be pending, while it will have to face the challenges of digital transformation, the energy transition and aging. The 2050 Strategy addresses them and proposes a broad package of measures to overcome them.
The end of the state of alarm prompted the recovery of spending with BBVA credit and debit cards or at BBVA POS terminals in May, which were 19% higher than those made in the same period of 2019 (13% in April).
The tightening of sanitary measures at the end of May decreased consumption to April 2020 levels, affecting categories related to mobility and "non-essential" activities. A significant improvement in the level of Argentina's spending on the path towards the new normality is not yet visible.
Social Security affiliation grew by 211,900 people and unemployment fell by 129,400. BBVA Research estimates that seasonally adjusted employment advanced by 71,000 people and unemployment fell by 27,000. Although affiliation approached pre-crisis levels, there are 1,002,000 workers with limited activity.