COVID-19 latest publications
In early 2022, we face a global economic scenario with an eye still on the pandemic, but with a return to macroeconomic management issues that seemed forgotten for decades—high inflation and the tapering of monetary stimulus.
Leaving aside divergences in the short term, a comprehensive, balanced approach must pay attention to all the underlying information on the ongoing recovery of the Spanish economy that indicators such as GDP and employment can offer us.
In 2021, total card consumption recovered a similar dynamism to that of 2019. The evolution of the different categories reflects the uneven impact of the pandemic and the changes in habits it brought about. 2022 began with a YoY contraction in total spending due to the slowdown in consumption of services.
According to BBVA credit card spending data, tourist spending made by Spaniards remained 4% above the 2019 records in December (5% in November and 77% y / y). If spending by Spaniards abroad is excluded, the advance stood at 11% (14% in November and 71% in y / y).
The economy of the Basque Country, although showing a recovery, is less dynamic than expected last spring. GDP growth in 2022 will be somewhat higher than in 2021, around 5.5%, and by the end of 2022 there might be a return to the pre-crisis level of activity.
Social Security affiliation grew by 72,600 in Dec-21 and unemployment fell by 76,800, more than expected. Seasonally adjusted, employment rose by 73,000 and unemployment dropped by the same amount. In Q4, the increase in affiliation kept its pace (1.1% QoQ SWDA) and the reduction in unemployment slowed (-6.6%).
The central banks of the major developed economies will be closely monitored as they are heading for the exit strategy, i.e. the unwinding of the massive monetary stimulus rolled out during the COVID-19 crisis. The challenge is huge because of a combination of three elements.
The growth trend in the real estate market continues. After the correction, between 2008 and 2014, the sector has not stopped growing in the last few years. This advance was only interrupted in 2020— the toughest stage in the COVID-19 pandemic— which is still affecting the world economy.