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Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 5.1% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020.
The current crisis represents an unprecedented risk to the U.S. economy as the fallout from the coronavirus has created a confluence of supply- and demand-side shocks coupled with a financial meltdown.
An analysis of the POS operations in gas stations in the Valle de Mexico metro-area are analyzed by day and hour. The crisis began at noon on Tuesday January 8, lasted 13 days, ended on January 20, 16% more gasoline was loaded per operation, an…
The fact that investors and the European Commission have turned the spotlight on the Italian economy as a result of Italy's presenting a budget with a public deficit target of a seemingly moderate 2.4% of GDP may seem paradoxical if certain dif…
Since 2014, Spain has been growing at rates higher than those of most other European countries. During these years, Spain has recovered the competitiveness lost before the crisis. Inflation, unit labour costs and mark-ups have performed better …
The trigger leading to the sharp market reaction was on the one hand the manifesto of the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League, which included disproportionate fiscal expansion. All Italian parties had made extravagant fiscal promises, but had not envisaged sticking to them when forming a government.
Structural reforms since they usually involve a transfer of income that leads to the groups negatively affected mobilising to prevent them. Governments then have to decide how to manage that pain and when: with a large number of measures concentrated into a short time-span, perhaps taking advantage of the mandate afforded b…
Inequality in Spanish household income has increased during the crisis. However, in terms of consumption, inequality decreased. Accordingly, while wealthier families reduced spending by 17.2% between 2007 and 2015, those economically disadvanta…
Some voices are defending the need for further consolidation as a way of fixing the problems remaining in the European banking system. While further consolidation has some advantages, it also implies some drawbacks and costs. This paper discuss…
