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Upward revision of the Spanish economy in 2023 to 2.4%, to be led by the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Madrid. But growth in 2024 is revised by 0.5 pp (to 2.1%), due to the slowdown in the tourism industry, the rise in interest rates, and the delay in the impact of the NGEU funds.

The GDP growth forecast for all the Autonomous Communities increases in 2023, with greater momentum in the industrial and tourist regions. But the forecast for 2024 is reduced: inflation moderates the increase in consumption in the Mediterranean regions, and the improvement in Europe will not be enough to compensate for it.

In February, total consumer spending contracted 2.7% year-on-year in real terms, deepening the moderation it has been showing since the end of 2022. This time, the result was mostly explained by the deceleration of spending in services sectors.

This Economic Watch evaluates the factors that explain the behavior of the Spanish economy between the third quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2022, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WA…