Democratic latest publications

December 8, 2020

U.S. Elections Chartbook. December 2020

As we predicted, Biden won the 2020 presidential election. Gains among non-college educated white men edged Biden to victory in swing states despite a lower margin of victory among non-whites.

November 11, 2020

China | The impact of Biden’s victory on Chinese economy and the Sino-US relationship

A cautiously positive attitude might be more adoptable regarding the short-term Sino-US relation; however, for the long-term perspective, we do not have sufficient reasons so far to deny any pessimism on the bilateral relationship going forward.

October 30, 2020

U.S. Elections Chartbook. October 2020

Motivating disaffected voters in key swing states could determine the election. Preliminary data suggests Democrats have commanding lead in early mail-in voting. Available early in-person voting shows Republicans have an edge.

September 24, 2020

U.S. Elections Chartbook. September 2020

President’s approval ratings continue recovering, but remain below pre-Covid levels. With most states taking steps to accommodate the Covid-19 crisis, 78% of voters will have the option to cast an absentee ballot without any limitation.

July 21, 2020

U.S. 2020 Presidential Election: No easy cures

The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.

December 19, 2019

U.S. Elections Chartbook. December 2019

Seven candidates qualified for the Democratic debate on 12/19. Party nomination starts with Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020. Super Tuesday on March 3; over 50% of delegates by end of March.