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Since mid-July, the euro has depreciated by more than 5% against the dollar, even dropping to USD 1.04 at the beginning of the month. This drop is the result of a combination of circumstances that have had a significant impact on the currency in the second half of 2023 after a solid second quarter.
So far this year, despite the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in history by the Federal Reserve (Fed), emerging currencies (with some exceptions) and the euro have strengthened significantly.
Over the past six months, the euro has experienced a significant appreciation against the dollar, from lows below parity last fall to levels of around 1.10 in recent weeks. This somewhat expected appreciation has come sooner than anticipated.
Historical evidence shows that when the United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) implements cycles of increases in monetary policy rates, the dollar appreciates against most world currencies.
So far this year, the euro has depreciated by more than 10% against the dollar, weakening in mid-July to the level of parity between the two currencies for the first time since 2002.
The tables have recently turned for the common European currency as it once again moves toward appreciation. Following the period of weakness it experienced earlier this year, the euro has appreciated by over 3.5% so far this quarter, exceeding 1.22. This appreciation occurred earlier than expected.
Being a fan of the US central bank may not be strictly necessary, but closely following its monetary policy certainly is.
Financial markets started the week on the wrong foot, awaiting the outcome of a raft of events that will take place this week. High-level US-China trade talks and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will be the main milestones. Additionally, a vote on May…
Cautious mood in markets during the week, amid the resurfacing of concerns about global growth. The release of China’s 4Q18 GDP -which confirmed the expected slowdown-, the cut in the IMF’s global economic growth forecast and disappointing conf…
Cautious mood seemed to prevail in markets. Today`s attention was on the euro zone due to the release of confidence data and the ECB meeting. Meanwhile, despite the non-representation of the US administration in Davos, the US-China trade dispu…
Financial markets remained cautious. The focus continued on US-China trade talks following yesterday's rumours about the US rejection of pre-talks ahead of high-level meetings next week. However, the information has been denied by both sides. The Brexit issue also came into the limelight with the possibility of a delay, whi…
Cautious tone returned to financial markets amid the latest news about a formal US request for extradition from Canada of the finance chief of Huawei, which threatens to heighten US-China trade tensions. Moreover, the World Economic Forum in Davos started its first day with some important leaders missing, notably US Preside…
